The College Football Committee has made their choice of who’s in and who’s out, as shown above. The results of a poll of DK readers on their choices is given, Kudos are given out, and the CFP decision is analyzed. Finally, there is a poll on who YOU think will win the semi-finals.
This diary is an update to the prior diary on this subject written on Saturday night after the day’s games were over and before the CFP decision was made.
Who’s In, Who’s Out
The top ten choices of the College Football Committee (CFP) are below. The top four teams go to the College Football Championship. The other teams go to various bowl games.
- Michigan
- Washington
- Texas
- Alabama
- Florida State
- Georgia
- Ohio State
- Oregon
- Missouri
- Penn State
The BIG surprise from the CFP was leaving Florida State — an undefeated conference champion — out of the playoffs. 2023 is the first time this has happened. An analysis of their decision, including their statement, is given in the section titled “Breaking Down the CFP Decision.”
Results of the Daily Kos Readers’ Poll
In the prior diary there was a poll that asked: “Who do you think should be in the college football championship ? (Ohio State is by itself because there are too many options if this isn't done.)”
The author selected Michigan and Washington as no. 1 and 2, because this was, and is, the overwhelming opinion of the analysts, as well as the author. No one objected to this ranking.
The results as of the start of the CFP announcement at 12:15 EST were captured by the author, and are given below by the order of the answers in the poll. “No last 3” are the results if the last 3 answers are excluded because no team was selected.
Results of Poll of Daily Kos Readers Prior to CFP Decision
Answers |
All |
no last 3 |
Florida State & Texas |
39 |
45 |
Florida State & Alabama |
8
|
9 |
Florida State & Georgia |
7 |
8 |
Texas & Alabama |
15 |
17 |
Texas & Georgia |
5 |
6 |
Alabama & Georgia |
8 |
9 |
Ohio State |
4 |
6 |
|
|
|
No Opinion |
5 |
-- |
i don’t care about college football |
7 |
-- |
prefer to remain silent |
2 |
-- |
If the results with similar teams, or answers, are grouped together, then the results are: (Results with “No Last 3” are in parenthesis).
- Texas: 59% (68%)
- Florida State: 54% (62%)
- Alabama: 31% (35%)
- Georgia: 23% (23%)
- No Answer: 14% (--)
- Ohio State: 4% (6%)
As you can see, the DK readers really like Texas and Florida State. The SEC teams don’t fare as well. Sorry Ohio State, but you finished dead last in the groupings, and just above those who wanted to remain silent (when all the answers are considered). It looks like you’re going to have to figure out how to beat Michigan to get any respect here.
Compared to the CFP selections, the DK readers agree with Texas, but put Florida State ahead of Alabama by 2/3 to 1/3.
Full Kudos to those 15% who choose Texas and Alabama. You obviously understand the CFP better than this author who selected Florida State and Texas. Half Kudos to those who picked either Texas or Alabama.
Results of Other Polls
The results of the AP and Coaches Polls are below for the top 7 teams, with the AP first and the Coaches second. The 8-10 teams are the same as the CFP.
AP Coaches
- Michigan Michigan
- Washington Washington
- Texas Florida State
- Florida State Texas (tied for 4th)
- Alabama Alabama (tied for 4th)
- Georgia Georgia
- Ohio State Ohio State
The AP and the Coaches Polls fully agree with the DK Readers Poll (apart from the Coaches showing Texas & Alabama tied for 4th despite Texas beating Alabama.) (The positioning of Texas and Florida State is very close in all 3 polls with a difference of 17 points out of 1360 points in the AP, and 9 points in the Coaches.)
The AP and the Coaches Polls completely disagree with the CFP decision to exclude Florida State from the playoffs.
Breaking Down the CFP Decision
How are we to understand the CFP decision to exclude Florida State from the playoffs despite their finishing undefeated and winning the ACC Championship, and despite the AP, the Coaches and this DK Readers Polls ?
The first place to start is what the Chair of the CFP Committee, Boo Corrigan said. (He is the Athletic Director of North Carolina State, who is in the ACC.) The key reason, as reported by CBS is: (There is nothing on the CFP website about what he said, nor any written statement from the CFP Committee.)
"That was the decision, was Alabama at four," Corrigan said. "Florida State is a different team than they were through the first 11 weeks. Coach [Mike] Norvell, their players, their fans -- an incredible season. But as you look at who they are as a team right now without Jordan Travis, without the offensive dynamic that he brings to it, they are a different team and the committee voted Alabama four and Florida State five."
Referring to the coaches on the committee, he said:
"I think it's one of the questions that we do ask, is from a coaching standpoint, you know, who do you want to play, who do you not want to play," Corrigan said. "And as we go through that, again, looking at where we are today, not where we were three weeks ago or, you know, eight weeks ago. Who do they want to play, who do they not want to play? They've got a significant voice in the room, and as we went through that, we went around and around late last night, came back again this morning to do it again and again we came back with the top four as we did and Florida State at five."
The selection criteria for the CFP is very clear on the CFP Website: It is:
- Conference Championships
- Strength of Schedule
- Head to Head Results
- Record Against Common Opponents
In addition, the website says the CFP is looking to select the best teams. Somewhere in here should be won-loss record, but this isn’t explicitly stated.
Comparing Florida State (FSU) to Alabama, both won their conference championship. Alabama has a stronger schedule than FSU, but FSU has a perfect record and Alabama does not. Alabama has the better win (over Georgia), and a respectable loss (to Texas). These factors seem to balance out, but lots of people are complaining about Alabama being ranked higher than FSU. (Both teams beat their common opponent, LSU, but didn’t face each other.)
Comparing Florida State (FSU) to Texas, both won their conference championship.. While FSU has an undefeated record, Texas has the stronger schedule, the better win (over Alabama), and a respectable loss (to Oklahoma). These factors balance out, and no one is complaining about Texas being in the playoffs.
There are three teams, but only two slots. One of these conference champions has to be left out. Florida State’s record is comparable to that of Texas. Texas has the head to head win over Alabama, so by the CFP criteria, Texas has to be ranked ahead of Alabama. Logically, if FSU = Texas, and Texas is better than Alabama, then FSU must be better than Alabama. (One would hope that the CFP Committee is making logical decisions.)
The only possible reason to exclude FSU would seem to be that FSU is not one of the best teams, although the chairmen never explicitly says this. He alludes to it by saying that they are not the same team today, as they were before their star quarterback had his season ending injury. But, he never says that they are no longer that good of a team, just that they are a “different team.” It seems that he expects you to interpret “different” as meaning inferior.
However, when looking at the rest of the rankings, FSU is no. 5 — ahead of Georgia and Ohio State. Yet Georgia is a powerful team filled with exceptional talent, and Ohio State almost beat Michigan, losing by just a 6 points.
This author doesn’t see how Florida State’s “different team” is somehow inferior to Alabama, yet superior to the Georgia and Ohio State powerhouses. And, the author suspects that most coaches would prefer to face a Florida State team with their second string quarterback, than Georgia or Ohio State with their first string quarterbacks.
Furthermore, if we go back and look at the CFP rankings in the two weeks before Sunday, Dec. 3, we find that the committee actually thought this ‘different team” was better than Texas and Alabama. (Florida State was without their star quarterback these two weeks.) These rankings were:
Last Week 2 Weeks Ago
- Georgia Georgia
- Michigan Ohio State
- Washington Michigan
- Florida State Washington
- Oregon Florida State
- Ohio State Oregon
- Texas Texas
- Alabama Alabama
On December 3, this “different team” was the same “different team” the prior week, and two weeks ago, at least as far as this author can tell. This “different team” beat their in-state rival Florida two weeks ago, and won the ACC Championship last Saturday. Yet, in a matter of a day, or a week, this “different team” somehow regressed from being a better team than Texas and Alabama to being a worse team.
A better, and positive, reason to rank Texas and Alabama ahead of Florida State is that Texas and Alabama became better teams, or showed that they were better teams than previously thought, in the past two weeks. This reason is certainly true of Texas, as they showed just how good they are by dismantling Texas Tech (a poor team, but Texas had trouble with other poor teams), and a ranked Oklahoma State team in a truly dominating manner. Alabama showed just how good they are by defeating an extremely good Georgia team.
However, the CFP Committee Chair never said how much better Texas and Alabama had become. And, he never said that Florida State was not as good as before. He only said that Florida State was “different.”
As you may have read between the lines, this author is having a very hard time understanding the CFP Committee’s decision to exclude Florida State from the playoffs.
Please note that the commenters to the prior diary have some explanations for Florida State’s sudden fall. Hopefully, they will share their reasons with the reader in the comments to this diary, and take the appropriate credit.
Closing
Hopefully, the type of selection issues this year will go away, or at least be less intense, when the college football playoffs moves to a 12 team format in 2024. There will still be issues at the numbers 11, 12, 13 and 14 spots, and separating teams that are very close to each other will still be difficult. Perhaps the emotions won’t be as intense as when there are only four places available, and the explanations from the selection committee will be more transparent. But, maybe this is just wishful thinking.
Meantime, we need to move on to the college football semi-finals. Please respond to the poll below that asks your opinion of who will win the semi-finals. The answers are divided into just one game, and both games, so those who have opinions on one but not the other can answer. (The DK polls allow only a single answer to be given, which is why there has to be so many answers.)