UPDATE: Sunday, Nov 12, 2023 · 7:07:24 PM +00:00
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bilboteach
I’ve been asked a lot about the Missouri Senate race against Josh Hawley. I think this excellent diary makes the case for our candidate, Lucas Kunce.
I’m a little more skeptical, but it is possible that Kunce could be like Jason Kander in 2016. He ran a very competitive race even when Trump was winning Missouri by double digits.
Missouri is just a tough state demographically right now for us. Lots of white evangelical Christians, two metropolitan areas that aren’t large enough to dominate the politics of the state, and suburbs moving our way but at a slow pace.
Before the 2022 midterm elections, I wrote a series called the Majority Savers. The series was meant to highlight important races in both the House and the Senate that could be the difference between having a majority and having the GOP in power to constantly block the Biden/Harris agenda.
Good News: We ADDED a seat to our Senate majority, going from a 50-50 Senate with MVP Harris as a tie breaker to a 51-49 majority!
Bad News: We lost the House of Representatives, as the GOP gained 9 seats. That hurt, but we are within striking distance of taking back our majority there.
Worse News: The reason I am launching this series again is that the 2024 Senate map is absolutely brutal, and the GOP has a decent chance of retaking the Senate.
The Save the Majority series for the 2024 election cycle will have two components
- Save Our Senate, which is primarily defending the slim majority we have in the Senate. Under the fold, you will see why the Senate map is so brutal.
- Flip Our House, which is a series that highlights important House seats that we need to win to take back the House, along with a few incumbents that we still need to defend.
Today is all about Save our Senate, which is the taller of the two tasks in my opinion. I hope this is well received, because there is also a presidential race in 2024, and those tend to suck all of the oxygen out of the room, leaving down ballot races with less attention.
It is time to Save Our Senate in 2024! Donate to these 10 candidates today!
If you like this article, make sure to follow the New Faces in Congress group and the #SaveTheMajority hashtag by clicking the links. Once 2024 rolls around, I plan on writing articles on Sundays.
NOTE: Race ratings are based on my opinion of how the race is progressing at this time. They are a snapshot in time, and of course they could be entirely wrong. I’m not planning on changing the ratings at this time.
Without further ado, let’s look at the 2024 Senate map!
Be warned, this is a VERY LONG ARTICLE!
This S.O.S list is in order from the seat that is most vulnerable on down. You will quickly notice how difficult this map will be for us — all defense and limited offensive opportunities.
1. West Virginia Senate Seat
RATING: Safe Republican (flip)
Sen. Joe Manchin may have been a thorn in our sides, but he was also the best chance of retaining the Senate seat in West Virginia. Manchin has decided to retire, meaning this seat is almost certainly going to flip to the GOP. Get ready for Sen. Jim Justice (R).
The problem is that at the rate West Virginia is supporting the GOP, we may never see another Democratic Senator from the state in our lifetimes. He was the best we will get out of an increasingly hostile state. Our current candidate is Zachary Shrewsbury, and I give him credit for being willing to try in a situation that is extremely tough.
Remember, we can only afford ONE lost Senate seat in total, or none of them if the GOP wins the 2024 Presidential election (though the Senate and House are lost to us if that happens).
Note: I will NOT feature this race in my future diary series, and this will be the last time I cover it.
2. Jon Tester (D-MT)
RATING: Tossup
Sen. Jon Tester is a political survivor on increasingly hostile turf. He is considered a centrist, but his issue positions are fairly liberal for a state that easily supported Trump twice. He really hasn’t been the Senator holding up our agenda. Centrism is fine so long as it isn’t obstructionist as far as I am concerned.
The problem comes with the fact that the GOP is likely to handily win the state of Montana. In the last two presidential election cycles, only Sen. Susan Collins has survived in a state won by the opposing party during a Presidential election. As the nation becomes more polarized, ticket splitting is increasingly rare.
Sen. Tester has committed to running for re-election. He is the last member of the Democratic Party to win statewide, and it is quite possible he is the only one capable of doing so at this point.
3. Sherrod Brown (D-OH)
RATING: Tossup
Sen. Sherrod Brown is another senator that is quite liberal when compared to their state. He is considered a liberal populist, and he represents a state that Trump won twice easily. He is more critical of centrist economic policy, especially trade deals such as NAFTA that have decimated the Rust Belt.
The problem comes from the fact that we just had an Ohio Senate race in 2022, and it wasn’t that particularly close. Rep. Tim Ryan could not win an open Senate seat against a flawed GOP candidate (now Senator) J.D. Vance. It is tough to see a path to victory in this state so long as Trump is in charge of the GOP.
We will have to hope incumbency is enough to eke out a narrow win, as Sen. Brown has as of this time decided to seek a 4th term.
4. Arizona Senate Seat
RATING: Tossup
Arizona is a state trending our way, as the crazies have taken over the GOP and have repulsed the McCain wing of the party to our side. Plus, the state is diversifying as more Latinos come of age in the state. Rep. Ruben Gallego looks to be at the forefront of this sea change and is the REAL Democratic candidate for this Senate seat.
There are multiple problems with this seat, starting with the fact that it already has an incumbent. Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema has basically alienated everyone now, but she could easily play spoiler by staying in the race. She has yet to commit to running or standing down. That could allow even an absolute nutter, such as Krazy Kari Lake in the GOP, to win with a split vote on our side.
Furthermore, my opinion is that Gallego will face a combination of “too liberal for my state” and a heaping dose of racism. Arizona is not ready to elect anyone nearly as liberal as he has been in the House. He has the right profile for an eventual win statewide, but I wish he would have waited until 2030 to run for higher office.
5. Jacky Rosen (D-NV)
RATING: Tossup
Sen. Jacky Rosen first flipped a swing House seat in 2016, and then quickly launched a Senate campaign that was successful in 2018. She has been right near the median Senator in the caucus, which means she isn’t too liberal or too moderate. She has been fairly quiet and hasn’t sought out the spotlight like many other Senators do.
The problem comes from three facts:
First, Nevada has been trending to the right over the past decade politically. The Obama elections were high water marks, and the state has trended back to a place where both sides can win it.
Second, while Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto very narrowly won in 2022, the same voters also elected a governor from the Republican Party (Joe Lombardo) on the same ticket.
Third, Las Vegas has a very transient population, and politicians have to constantly reintroduce themselves every election to compensate.
In better news, Sen. Rosen will be running for re-election, and the state legislature is dominated by the Democratic Party, meaning no voter suppression shenanigans will happen.
6. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI)
RATING: Leans Democratic
Sen. Tammy Baldwin is one of the more liberal members of our caucus, which balances out Sen. Ron Johnson, who is one of the more conservative members of the opposition. Wisconsin can be such a contradictory state politically! She had a tough election in 2012 and an easy one in 2018. I think she could face a stiff test in 2024.
This seat could be a problem if the GOP finds the right candidate to contest the seat. Recall that Biden won the state by about 20,000 votes in 2020. Sen. Ron Johnson narrowly won his third term in 2022 by about a percentage point. If things go sour for the Biden/Harris administration, this is a seat in a state that could go for the GOP.
Thankfully, Sen. Baldwin has decided to run for re-election in 2024, which improves our chances of holding the seat significantly.
7. Michigan Senate Seat
RATING: Leans Democratic
Trump seems to have a particular connection with Michigan politically as evidenced by his win of the state in 2016 and a close loss in 2020. However, we swept into complete power in the state in 2022 — winning the governor race and the state legislature for the first time in 40 years.
The problem with this seat is that Sen. Debbie Stabenow chose to retire. I respect her decision, as she has been in one office or another for nearly 50 years. An open seat is much harder to defend than an incumbent is. The current frontrunner is Rep. Elissa Slotkin, but she still has to make it through a primary election first.
The good news is that the GOP is in disarray in the state after a total shellacking. Their side of the aisle may have a messy primary election too! There is no one in particular that I greatly fear, but (now) Rep. John James came out of nowhere and almost won twice — so if they find the right candidate…
8. Bob Casey, Jr. (D-PA)
RATING: Leans Democratic
Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. is a good fit for the state of Pennsylvania. He hasn’t faced a particularly close election since waltzing into the Senate in 2006. Sen. John Fetterman just won the other Senate seat, and Gov. Josh Shapiro lambasted the insurrectionist opposition in 2022. All is looking good in the Keystone State.
This seat would only be a problem if the worst happens and the GOP replicates the 2016 political map, in which they won the state of Pennsylvania narrowly. Given that Biden only narrowly won Pennsylvania four years later, I am not ready to say that Sen. Casey is in the clear. The GOP found someone decent to run against Casey, which further complicates things.
I so want to rate this Senate seat as a likely hold for our party, but the above paragraph makes me keep this as a leaning seat out of an abundance of caution. We will be wiped out if this seat falls in 2024.
9. Ted Cruz (R-TX)
RATING: Likely Republican
We had to go all the way down to #9 on the list to reach our first GOP Senator. If that doesn’t tell you how awful the map is for us, I don’t know what will convince you otherwise. Sen. Ted Cruz may be very unpopular, but he is also from Texas, which is a state that hasn’t elected a Democratic candidate statewide for over 30 years now.
Luckily, it looks like Rep. Colin Allred is stepping up to the plate to challenge Cruz! He will have a tough race, as Texas is a large state and he will need at least $100 million dollars (or more) to even be competitive. It is unknown whether or not he can raise that obscene amount of cash. There are other Democratic contenders waiting in the wings if Allred stumbles in the primary election.
The good news is that Texas will likely continue to trend our way, and 2018 proved that Cruz alienates even some stalwart members of the GOP coalition. I suspect that Texas will flip blue in the next 10-15 years and Cruz will be toast when that happens. In my opinion, 2024 is still too early for Cruz to lose.
10. Rick Scott (R-FL)
RATING: Likely Republican
Based on recent election results, Florida seems to be converting into a MAGA heaven. The first sign that something politically was wrong with this state was when Rick Scott narrowly beat inoffensive Sen. Bill Nelson by about 10,000 votes in the middle of the great big blue wave election in 2018.
Florida was a bloodbath in 2022, and a very credible candidate in Rep. Val Demings got smoked by Sen. Marco Rubio for the other Senate seat. Gov. Ron DeSantis also had an easy re-election win against retread candidate Rep. Charlie Crist.
To make matters worse, Sen. Scott has plenty of money to drown any aspiring candidate bold enough to challenge him statewide. To make things even more challenging, traditionally the Florida Democratic Party has struggled with organization and finances. Maybe current leader Nikki Fried can change that...
I'm not saying that we shouldn’t contest this seat or the state. I am warning against getting suckered into hoping that this state will change back to Obama levels of support in the next few years and stop being an attractive state to MAGA members everywhere. Too many retirees are moving to the state and bringing their MAGA politics with them. Add in the fact that we’re losing ground in the Miami-Dade area, and it is tough to see a path to victory.
I wish our likely candidate, former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, luck because she will need it.
11.Bob Menendez (D-NJ)
RATING: Tossup with Menendez; Safe Democratic with any other candidate
After the bombshell indictment, this seat could very much be at risk if Menendez is our candidate for the general election. My hope is that he is dead in the water in the primary or that he does the right thing and resigns. We really cannot afford for this seat to be at risk when so many others are already that way.
The reason he is down at #11 is because it all depends on who the nominee is. If it is Menendez, all bets are off and we have another seat to defend. If it is someone else, then the seat is no longer at risk. Those are the stakes in a solidly Democratic state like New Jersey. It is all up to the political machines in the state. Will they stand by their corrupt benefactor, or will they turn to someone else? Rep. Andy Kim is running in the primary, and he will soon be joined by NJ First Lady Tammy Murphy, who could provide an alternative choice for the party machines.
Conclusion
If you have made it this far, I want to reiterate that Save Our Senate is not meant to be pessimistic. The aim of this diary is to make everyone aware of the very tough task that lies ahead of us, and to start thinking about what needs to be done in order to be successful. As a reminder, the only seat I feel that is going to flip at this time is the one in West Virginia. I do want to be realistic about our chances — they are like drawing an inside straight in poker. It is possible, but everything has to go right for it to happen. We have to win 8 of the 11 seats above to hold onto power in the upper chamber.
Without the Senate, we confirm no judges and also few open positions in the executive branch. We need to do everything in our power to not only re-elect the Biden/Harris ticket, but also give them two more years of a Democratic Senate. That gives us two more years of having a chance of replacing a Supreme Court Justice, and two more years of filling the executive branch with qualified people instead of people intent on destroying the government.
If I had to choose between Flip Our House (to win back the House) and Save Our Senate (to keep the Senate), I would always choose the latter.
Here is the Save Our Senate 2024 Fund on ActBlue! The 2024 Senate map is a brutal one! These 10 candidates are the key to holding the Senate. Please donate and then share a link to this site on your social media! #SaveOurSenate