The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● AZ-Sen: In a major surprise, Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake announced on Tuesday that he would not seek re-election next year. In explaining his retirement, Flake professed his love for the Senate but, in a speech on the chamber's floor, decried the "coarseness" of politics in the era of Donald Trump and, without calling out Trump by name, criticized his "[r]eckless, outrageous, and undignified behavior." Ultimately, though, Flake's decision seems to have come down to the viability of his own political career. "The path that I would have to travel to get the Republican nomination is a path I'm not willing to take, and that I can't in good conscience take," he told the Arizona Republic.
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Flake's diagnosis of his own woes is not misplaced. Flake has long been one of Trump's most vocal critics in the GOP while at the same time serving as loyal vote for him in the Senate. This approach earned Trump's vocal ire and seemed to turn off almost everyone in Arizona, Democrats and Republicans alike: Polls had shown Flake badly losing the GOP primary to former state Sen. Kelli Ward, a badly underfunded fringe figure who herself had lost to Sen. John McCain 51-40 last year, and in trouble against Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema in the general election.
So what will Flake's abrupt departure mean for Arizona's Senate race? With Flake running, the GOP was on a path toward nominating Ward, a woman best known for hosting a town-hall meeting about "chemtrails," a bonkers conspiracy theory that holds that the vapor contrails produced by airplanes are actually mind-control chemicals. Several less, ah, exotic Republicans also hadn't previously ruled out bids of their own, but had they joined in while Flake was still in the race, they might have actually saved his hide by splitting the anti-incumbent vote. Of course, had Flake "survived" in this manner, it could have left him crippled for the general election—and inspired furious Trump supporters to simply stay home.
Now the GOP will hope a stronger alternative emerges, but can this as-yet-unnamed savior make it through even a Flake-less primary, or will the likes of Ward successfully be able to sabotage any such hopes? A, if not the, key reason Flake's approval rating tanked so hard with Republican voters is because of Trump's relentless attacks, so can any replacement avoid stoking Trump's wrath for an entire year? As CNN notes, Trump has now personally attacked one in five GOP senators. Anyone seeking to step into Flake's shoes might fare no better.
However the GOP sorts itself out of this mess, Democrats will stay on the offensive. Arizona, which voted for Trump by a slim 48-45 margin—the closest presidential result in the state in two decades—is one of just two states where Democrats have a good chance to pick up a Senate seat from the GOP, and Sinema is a top recruit. But no matter what happens here, Republicans have to be worried about what it means when a scandal-free, 54-year-old first-term senator decides to call it quits rather than face his party's base. Plenty of other incumbents might just feel the same way.
Senate
● AL-Sen: Strategy Research has released a poll of Alabama's Senate special election on behalf of local news outlet Fox10, and they find Republican Roy Moore leading Democrat Doug Jones by 52-41. They conducted this poll just three days after an Oct. 19 release on behalf of a different media client that found Moore ahead by 51-40. Both polls give Moore his biggest lead that any pollster has found since the late-September primary runoff. However, Moore has led by a modest margin in all but one of those polls, while doing no worse than a tie in any of them.
● FL-Sen: The University of North Florida has returned to poll the Sunshine State, and they find Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson leading Republican Gov. Rick Scott just 37-36 in a hypothetical 2018 Senate match-up. That's a drop from their February result, where Nelson prevailed by 44-38. Nelson is currently finishing up his third term as senator, while Scott has been governor since 2011, and the 27 percent saying they're undecided or favor "someone else" in this poll seems a little too high to be believable for such well-known officeholders.
Bizarrely, the pollster reported a dramatic 20-point increase in the number of respondents who expressed no opinion of Nelson, with his approval rating sitting at just 35 percent with only 15 percent disapproving. By contrast, their February survey had Nelson at 42 percent approving and 28 percent disapproving. That difference may explain a good chunk of why there are so many undecideds this time. Meanwhile, they have Scott's approval rating surging from 46 percent in February to 59 percent now with only 28 percent disapproving, possibly in response to his perceived handling of recent hurricane responses. While those numbers could make Scott a formidable opponent, Donald Trump's awful 37 percent approval and 59 percent disapproval rating could prove prohibitive for Scott.
Unfortunately, there just aren't that many pollsters testing this race, so it's hard to say whether UNF's most recent survey is wildly off the mark or not. Scott himself is in no rush to decide whether he'll run and has said he may not jump in until 2018. However, his widely anticipated campaign has frozen out the field of other potential GOP candidates, and it consequently may be a while before we start seeing more interest from other pollsters.
● MI-Sen: Sometimes, we just wish potential candidates would drop the charade and tell us unequivocally whether or not they're running for office. Musician Robert Ritchie, commonly known by his stage name "Kid Rock," had seen his name surface earlier this year as a possible Republican challenger to Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow, immediately setting off speculation over whether the multi-millionaire was serious or just using the attention to promote his latest album and merchandise. Some prominent state and national Republicans even appeared keen on Ritchie's candidacy, and he insisted he was seriously considering it. However, when he appeared on Howard Stern's SiriusXM radio show on Tuesday, he told the host:
"Fuck no, I'm not running for Senate. Are you fucking kidding me? Who couldn't figure that out? I'm releasing a new album. I'm going on tour, too. Are you fucking shitting me?"
Sounds, uh, pretty definitive, right? But nope, that would be too kind. Ritchie clearly enjoys messing with everyone, since he later stated in the very same interview:
But after saying he wouldn't run for office, Ritchie later told Stern he was leaving the door open to a Senate bid if the "left wing keeps fucking" with him.
"If they keep fucking with me in the papers and everything, I'm going to run," a laughing Ritchie said. "And I'm going to go to fucking D.C., I'm going to beat the shit out of Debbie—whatever the fuck her name is—and then I'm going to go to D.C. and I'm going to smack the living shit out of all of them motherfuckers on the Hill."
Whatever, dude. It speaks volumes about the dire state of Michigan Republicans that some of them are so desperate they'd stoop to supporting the likes of this clown.
● ND-Sen: Republican state Sen. Tom Campbell released a poll on Monday from 1892 Polling taken in mid-October that has him defeating Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp by 44-41 in next year's Senate race. Campbell also contends that a previously unreleased poll by the pollster from early June had him trailing by 43-37, which he argues shows how he's gaining momentum.
The October survey also tested a hypothetical GOP primary matchup with former Rep. Rick Berg, who was the 2012 Senate nominee, and several other names, but they notably omitted current Rep. Kevin Cramer, even though he's still considering it publicly. Campbell trounces Berg 42-24, but it's not necessarily surprising given that Campbell is the only notable Republican officially in the race and has already been running TV ads, while Berg has been out of office for five years. Whether that primary lead holds if or when other Republicans join the race and also start running ads is another matter.
Gubernatorial
● RI-Gov: Cranston Mayor Allan Fung, a Republican who lost the 2014 open-seat race by just 41-36 to Democratic Gov. Gina Raimondo, confirmed that he'll run for governor again next year by launching an introductory ad backed by $82,000. The spot highlights his tenure as mayor of Cranston, touting how he created thousands of jobs, fixed infrastructure, and made the city one of the best in America to live. He'll face state House minority Leader Patricia Morgan in the GOP primary.
● VA-Gov: Republican Ed Gillespie recently began airing an ad hitting Democrat Ralph Northam for ostensibly missing meetings related to key matters in his capacity as lieutenant governor. The narrator argues he "skipped 58 percent" of an economic development committee's meetings and try to link it to how Virginia "got scammed by China," losing over $1 million in a business deal. They contend Northam skipped every single homeland security meeting, while linking him to Gov. Terry McAuliffe for allegedly canceling a meeting with sheriffs, supposedly over their lack of endorsements for Northam's campaign.
Meanwhile, Northam's latest ad features him working on his 1953 Oldsmobile and talking about how he's been restoring classic cars ever since high school. He promises his rural economic plan will restore good-paying jobs in Southwestern Virginia with more vocational training and apprenticeships. Northam also pledges to "expand the University of Virginia at Wise and cut taxes for new rural businesses."
House
● AZ-01: We recently noted that state Sen. Steve Smith so far hasn't been raising much money against Democratic Rep. Tom O'Halleran in this swing seat, with Smith taking in just $45,000 during the third quarter. Smith had $123,000 on-hand at the end of September, which is actually less than the $219,000 he raised in his years-long attempt to build a border fence, a campaign he abandoned in 2015. But if local GOP leaders are concerned, they're not showing it: This week, the senior members of both the state House and Senate endorsed Smith.
At the beginning of the month another Republican did join the race, but with little fanfare. Small business attorney Tiffany Shedd, who operates a 600-acre cotton and wheat farm, kicked off her bid. It's unclear if Shedd has the resources and connections to run a serious race.
● CO-02: Several Democrats are preparing for next year's primary to succeed gubernatorial candidate Jared Polis in this 56-35 Clinton seat, but the race is still taking shape. Joe Neguse, the former head of the state Department of Regulatory Agencies, entered the contest in June and raised $165,000 from July to September, and he had $174,000 on-hand on Sept. 30. That's a decent haul for Neguse, who narrowly lost the 2014 general election for secretary of state, but it's not likely to deter other Democrats in this Boulder-area seat on its own. If Neguse is elected, he would be the first Eritrean-American member of Congress, as well as Colorado's first black member of Congress.
The only other Democrat who began fundraising before the end of the quarter was Mark Williams, the former head of the Boulder County party. Williams, who runs a consulting business, only raised $7,000 during his three weeks in the race, so it doesn't look like he's going to be a serious candidate. Two other candidates, Nederland Mayor Kristopher Larsen and gun-safety activist Ken Toltz, entered the contest in October, so we'll need to wait a while to get a sense for how much money they'll have available.
● CO-03: Democrats are once again hoping to target GOP Rep. Scott Tipton in this western Colorado seat, which shifted from 52-46 Romney to 52-40 Trump. State Rep. Diane Mitsch Bush entered the race at the beginning of the third quarter and raised $127,000 from donors and self-funded another $14,000, and she had $85,000 in the bank at the end of September. Grand Junction City Councilor Chris Kennedy, the other local Democratic elected official who has announced, raised just $1,000 since he entered the race in mid-September, so he's unlikely to be a factor.
Last cycle, Tipton defeated a well-funded Democratic foe 55-40, and it's unclear how much effort national Democrats will put into beating him this time. Tipton raised $150,000 from donors during the quarter and had $382,000 in the bank. Those aren't eye-popping sums for a four-term incumbent, though he proved last cycle that he can raise money when he needs to.
● CO-05: Rep. Doug Lamborn has faced a serious GOP primary challenge during almost each of his past five re-election campaigns, and he's in for another next year. State Sen. Owen Hill kicked off his bid for this safely red Colorado Springs seat in April, and 2016 Senate nominee Darryl Glenn, who leads the county commission in Colorado Springs' El Paso County, joined the race in July. In the third quarter, none of this trio even came close to raising $100,000; Lamborn led Hill $72,000 to $52,000, while Glenn took in just $13,000. However, Glenn transferred another $233,000 left over from his Senate campaign to his House account. At the end of September, Lamborn led Hill $421,000 to $214,000 in cash-on-hand, while Glenn had $201,000.
However, as we've noted before, Colorado's convention system complicates this contest. Parties hold conventions months before the primary, and a candidate needs to win at least 30 percent of the delegates to advance. Alternatively, candidates can collect signatures to advance to the primary ballot regardless of what happens at the convention, but this is an expensive and time consuming task that many campaigns just decide to skip. A voter-approved 2016 law also now allows a party central committee to vote to just forgo a primary altogether and pick their nominee at a convention.
Lamborn himself bet his 2016 renomination on a decent showing at the convention, and it almost cost him his seat. That year, convention delegates favored ex-congressional staffer Calandra Vargas over Lamborn 58 percent to 35; if Lamborn had slipped below 30 percent, he would have lost the GOP nomination then and there. Lamborn beat Vargas 68-32 in the primary a few months later.
By contrast, a strong showing at a different party convention last year helped propel Glenn to conservative stardom. Glenn spent more than a year running for the Senate and attracting little money or attention. However, Glenn galvanized delegates with a convention speech. Glenn, who is black, notably earned huge applause when he declared, "All lives matter!" Glenn took 70 percent of the vote and prevented most of his opponents from advancing. Glenn then defeated four opponents who reached the primary ballot by collecting signatures, before he lost in November to Democratic incumbent Michael Bennet 50-44.
● CO-06: GOP Rep. Mike Coffman has been infuriatingly tough to beat in this suburban Denver seat, but Democrats hope that 2018 will finally be their year. Retired Army Ranger Jason Crow, who has the support of ex-Sens. Ken Salazar and Mark Udall, and notably received a donation from DCCC chair Ben Ray Lujan in the second quarter, raised $174,000 from July to September. Clean energy expert Levi Tillemann, who served in the Obama administration, entered the contest in late June and proceeded to raise $162,000 over the next three months. At the end of September, Crow led Tillemann $393,000 to $111,000 in cash-on-hand. A third Democrat, attorney David Aarestad, barely registered with just $16,000 on-hand.
While this seat went from 52-47 Obama to 50-41 Clinton, Coffman won a very expensive re-election campaign 51-43. No one is under any illusion that Coffman will be easy to defeat, and a recent PPP survey for the Democratic group Patriot Majority gave the incumbent a 43-36 lead over Crow. Coffman has proven to be a strong fundraiser in the past, and while his $276,000 haul wasn't especially impressive, it was considerably more than any of his would-be opponents. At the end of September, Coffman had $711,000 in the bank.
There may also be another Democrat eyeing this seat. A few months ago, state Sen. Rhonda Fields was mentioned as a possible candidate, but a national Democratic group told the National Journal that she hadn't shown any interest in months. However, Fields recently told reporter Ally Mutnick that she wasn't ruling out getting in. Fields, who is black, expressed concern that the current Democratic candidates are all "white males." She also alluded to Crow, who lived just outside the 6th when he began running, when she said it was problematic that there is "one candidate that doesn't even live in the district."
● CO-07: Former diplomat Dan Baer dropped his bid for the Democratic nod a few weeks after Rep. Ed Perlmutter reversed course and decided to seek re-election after all. However, it's worth noting that Baer raised a strong $365,000 during the one quarter he was in the race, so he may be one to watch in a future race.
● GA-07: This suburban Atlanta seat went from 60-38 Romney to 51-45 Trump, not nearly as dramatic a shift as the shift in the neighboring 6th District, but still notable. Republican Rep. Rob Woodall doesn't seem at all worried, and he raised just $106,000 for the third quarter, leaving him with almost $300,000 in the bank. Two Democrats outraised Woodall during the last three months, but there's no clear frontrunner here and national Democrats so far haven't demonstrated too much interest in this contest.
Carolyn Bourdeaux, a Georgia State University professor, took in $125,000 during her first quarter in the race, and she had $78,000 on-hand. Businessman Ethan Pham, whom we had not previously mentioned, took in $120,000 during his opening quarter and threw in another $10,000 of his own money, and he had $110,000 in the bank.
The Democrat with the most cash-on-hand at the end of September was test-prep company founder David Kim, who had $237,000 in the bank. However, while Kim raised $122,000 during the second quarter and self-funded another $138,000, his fundraising dramatically slowed over the next three months: Kim raised just $30,000 and donated another $2,000 in the third quarter. Finally, attorney Steve Reilly, who lost 62-38 in 2012, barely registered with $10,000 on-hand.
● IA-01: While this eastern Iowa seat flipped from 56-43 Obama to 49-45 Trump, Team Blue very much plans to target it even if GOP Rep. Rod Blum stops alienating as many of his constituents as possible. But so far, none of Blum's Democratic foes are wowing with their fundraising. State Rep. Abby Finkenauer brought in $152,000 for the quarter, while former U.S. Labor Department official Thomas Heckroth took in $134,000 during his first few months in the race. At the end of September, Finkenauer had a $169,000 to $105,000 cash-on-hand edge. Engineer Courtney Rowe had just $2,000 in the bank.
The good news for Team Blue is that Blum himself isn't bringing in much either. Blum raised $158,000 during the quarter, but he had $884,000 in the bank. Blum is also wealthy and can probably do some-self funding if he feels like it.
● IA-02: While this eastern Iowa seat, which includes Iowa City and Davenport, swung from 56-43 Obama to 49-45 Trump, Republicans aren't exactly energetically gearing up to challenge Democratic Rep. Dave Loebsack so far. Last cycle, Loebsack beat physician Christopher Peters 54-46, and Peters is back for a rematch. However, Peters raised just $36,000 in his first quarter in the race. Loebsack, who is the last Democrat in Iowa's delegation, brought in $235,000 during that time, and he had just shy of $1.5 million on-hand.
● IA-03: Republican Rep. David Young won his second term last year 54-40 as his Des Moines-area seat went from 51-47 Obama to 49-45 Trump, but Democrats are hoping that this swing seat will be gettable in a good year. Several Democrats have stepped up to challenge Young, but only one raised more than $100,000 from donors during the last quarter. Theresa Greenfield, a real estate company president who announced in early July, brought in $189,000, and self-funded another $11,000.
But while insurance company owner Eddie Mauro, a former school baseball and football coach whom we had not previously mentioned, raised only $84,000, he self-funded another $100,000, and he led Greenfield $162,000 to $148,000 in cash-on-hand. Mauro, who hails from a well-known Des Moines South Side family, has only run for office once, losing his 2016 primary to a sitting state representative 67-33.
A few other Democrats are in the hunt here. Business consultant Cindy Axne raised $72,000 for the quarter, and she had $105,000 in the bank. Pete D'Alessandro, a longtime Iowa political operative who worked for Bernie Sanders' state campaign last year, brought in $49,000 for his opening quarter and had $27,000 on-hand. Austin Frerick, a former economist at the U.S. Treasury, raised only $15,000, and he had only $5,000 on-hand.
With such a large field, it's quite possible that no one will win the Democratic nod in the primary. Under Iowa law, if no one takes more than 35 percent of the vote in a primary, the party will choose their nominee at a convention. This outcome isn't necessarily a bad thing for the party, though. In 2014, Young was selected at the convention even though he had taken fifth place in the primary, and the GOP wave helped propel him to a 53-42 win in November. Young himself raised $184,000 for the quarter, which isn't incredible, and he had $627,000 in the bank.
● IL-06: Located in the western Chicago suburbs, Illinois' well-educated 6th District swung sharply from 53-45 Romney to 50-43 Clinton, leading to a surge of interest from Democrats eager to challenge Republican Rep. Peter Roskam in 2018. Carole Cheney, who recently stepped down as chief of staff to neighboring 11th District Rep. Bill Foster, raised the most of any Democrat from donors, but it was just a modest $125,000, leaving her with only $91,000 on-hand. Meanwhile, Barrington Hills Planning Commission member Kelly Mazeski raised a similar $101,000, but self-funded $3,000 and also loaned her campaign $105,000, leaving her with the most cash-on-hand with $343,000.
Clean energy businessman Sean Casten also hit six figures with the help of his own pocketbook after he raised $98,000 and loaned himself another $75,000, leaving himself with $169,000 on-hand. Similarly, Naperville City Councilor Becky Anderson raised $90,000, self-funded $3,000, and loaned herself $10,000 to get herself into the six-digit range, but she finished the quarter with only $64,000 on-hand. Finally, attorney Amanda Howland isn't well-positioned to win the Democratic nomination for the second cycle in a row after taking in just $30,000, self-loaning $5,000, and having $49,000 in the bank at the end of September.
Roskam's third quarter fundraising is a reminder that he'll likely be no pushover after he raised a formidable $490,000 and finished September with nearly $1.4 million available to spend, well ahead of any of his several Democratic challengers. While Trump's unpopularity gives Democrats a fighting chance in this suburban seat, beating a six-term incumbent will likely require Democrats to step up their fundraising pace here.
● IL-12: This downstate Illinois seat, which includes some of the St. Louis suburbs, swung from 50-48 Obama to 55-40 Trump, but Democrats landed a credible candidate to try to get it back. St. Clair County State's Attorney Brendan Kelly, the top prosecutor in the district's largest county, outraised sophomore GOP Rep. Mike Bost $355,000 to $260,000 in his first quarter in the race, though Bost maintains a $534,000 to $305,000 cash-on-hand edge.
On Wednesday, Bost announced that, while he'd been privately considering retiring, he would run again. Without any sense of irony, Bost said he was "frustrated with the extremists wanting to cause trouble and scream about the issues and want to make a splash on social media, even to the point of, I believe, causing a lot of hate in this nation that I've never seen before." Just before his first congressional campaign, Bost delivered an over-the-top rant on the state House floor over language inserted into a prison reform bill that had been vividly caught on tape. Bost repeatedly threw papers from his desk and also exclaimed, "Enough! I feel like somebody trying to be released from Egypt! Let my people go!" But Bost didn't tweet any of that, so all good.
● NY-11: This seat, which includes all of Staten Island and part of Brooklyn, backed Obama 52-47 after Hurricane Sandy hit the area hard, but it swung hard right four years later and supported Trump 54-44. It's going to be tough for Democrats to flip a seat this Trumpy, even with GOP Rep. Dan Donovan stuck in a nasty primary with ex-Rep. Mike Grimm, but one Democrat looks like he'll have the resources to make things interesting. Army veteran Max Rose, who earned a Purple Heart and Bronze Star in Afghanistan, entered the race in August and raised $325,000 for the quarter, and he had $263,000 in the bank at the end of September.
This week, Rose also earned an endorsement from VoteVets, a group dedicated to electing Democratic veterans. Several other Democrats are running, but none of the rest of the crowd has raised anything near what Rose had brought in. The only other Democrat who had at least $100,000 on hand was Omar Vaid, who works in TV prop and set decoration. Vaid raised almost nothing, but loaned himself $106,000, and he had about that amount in the bank.
As we noted when he announced, Rose, who served as the chief of staff to a local healthcare nonprofit, is originally from Brooklyn, though he's lived in Staten Island for the past few years. Staten Island voters very often prioritize electing one of their own, and Team Blue has had a tough finding a viable candidate with local bona fides over the last few cycles.
Grimm, who resigned in early 2015 before being sentenced to prison on tax evasion charges, has been threatening to challenge Donovan for months, and he finally made good on his threat in early October. However, Donovan didn't exactly use the time to bulk up his war-chest, since he raised just $212,000 for the quarter and had $444,000 on-hand.
However, Grimm only had $27,000 in his old House campaign account, and we'll need to see if he can raise cash. Grimm does have the support of Steve Bannon, but it remains to be determined how big of a factor Bannon will be in this cycle's GOP primaries. (Bannon notably backed Roy Moore's successful campaign against Alabama Sen. Luther Strange, but Moore won and Strange lost for many reasons that had nothing to do with Bannon.) But no matter what, Grimm will not struggle with name recognition here.
● OH-12: State Auditor Dave Yost, a Republican, announced on Monday via a spokesperson that he won't run for the newly open 12th Congressional District and will instead stick to his campaign for state attorney general next year. This seat, which stretches from Columbus' northern suburbs to Mansfield, backed Trump 53-42 and should favor the GOP, but Democrats may try to put it into play in an upcoming special election once outgoing GOP Rep. Pat Tiberi resigns by early next year.
● OH-14: Pastor Darrell Scott, who was CEO of the National Diversity Coalition for Trump during 2016, says he's considering a primary challenge against three-term Republican Rep. David Joyce for insufficiently supporting Trump's agenda. Scott claims that longtime Trump attorney Michael Cohen and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner have expressed their support for his campaign, although neither has said anything publicly. However, Ashtabula County party chairman Charlie Frye even sounded keen on Scott's candidacy, suggesting he may also have some support from local players in the party.
When former Republican Rep. Steve LaTourette dropped out of his re-election bid in 2012 after the primary had already taken place, party insiders chose Joyce as their replacement nominee, and he won the general election with ease. Although he won the nomination outright in the 2014 primary by just 55-45 against underfunded state Rep. Matt Lynch, Joyce won their 2016 rematch by a 64-35 landslide. However, Joyce was one of just 11 House Republicans in a Trump district to vote against the GOP's healthcare bill this year, which could give Scott the ammunition he needs to mount a credible challenge. This northeastern Ohio seat lurched from 50-48 Romney to a daunting 54-42 Trump edge, but Democrats may have an outside shot at an upset here if Joyce gets knocked off by a more extreme Republican in the primary.
● PA-01: The jaws of justice are growing ever tighter around Democratic Rep. Bob Brady's neck. On Tuesday, federal prosecutors indicted two longtime Brady advisers, Ken Smukler and Donald "D.A." Jones, for helping to orchestrate a secret $90,000 payment from Brady to retired local judge Jimmie Moore in order to get Moore to drop his primary challenge to the congressman back in 2012. That follows plea agreements with Moore himself as well as one of his former top aides, Carolyn Cavaness, though as the Philadelphia Inquirer notes, the fact that prosecutors indicted Jones and Smukler rather than announce deals with them suggests they aren't cooperating, as opposed to Moore and Cavaness, who appear to be.
Of course, indictments—and their attendant prospect of jail time—have a way of loosening lips, but whatever unfolds next, prosecutors are getting closer to Brady, by his own admission. When news of Cavaness' guilty plea first emerged in July, Brady offered an instantly immortal quote that also fell far short of an outright denial:
"You have to talk to Kenny. They did all that. That's five years ago. I don't remember none of that. Whatever they did, I don't know."
Looks like the feds decided to take Brady up on his suggestion, because "Kenny" is none other than Ken Smukler. Let's see if he still don't remember none of that, too—or if he decides to point a finger at the boss.
● PA-18: Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf recently scheduled the special election to succeed disgraced former GOP Rep. Tim Murphy for Tuesday, March 13. Parties in Pennsylvania choose their nominees for special elections according to their by-laws, and Democrats have decided to hold a convention on Nov. 19. Approximately 500 local party committee members will gather to vote on a recommendation, which the state party is expected to support. Several Democrats have already declared bids, including federal prosecutor Conor Lamb; Westmoreland County Commissioner Gina Cerilli; former Allegheny County Council Member Mike Crossey; Navy veteran Pam Iovino; and physician Robert Solomon.
Mayoral
● New Orleans, LA Mayor: Ex-Judge Michael Bagneris, who took third place with 19 percent in the Oct. 14 jungle primary, has endorsed City Councilor LaToya Cantrell in the Nov. 18 general election. Cantrell faces ex-Judge Desiree Charbonnet, whom she outpaced 39-30 in the primary; all three are Democrats.