In a decade or so, the summer of 2023 will be looked back on as a beautiful, cool, enjoyable time. We will tell each other, "Those were the days." That is likely to be the case whether or not we Earthlings do finally get it together to take the actions necessary to keep the climate crisis from turning us all to toast. Because, as has become clear over the past few years, many global warming impacts are already baked in or inevitably oncoming. How bad this will ultimately turn out to be is very much a matter of debate among climatologists and depends greatly on how much we do and how fast we do it to mitigate the worst impacts and maybe prevent a few altogether.
One thing we’re definitely not doing is moving speedily enough to reduce the climate-altering greenhouse gas emissions that come with using fossil fuels to run 21st Century civilization. Instead we’re still headed the other direction. Scientists say we have to reduce worldwide emissions 43% by 2030 to avoid the worst impacts of the crisis. Currently, all the national climate plans will produce only a 7% reduction. Climate activists have a solution to this off-target trajectory. Commit to rapidly phasing out fossil fuels.
Paul Brown at The Guardian took note Friday of the daily reading of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations as gauged at Mauna Loa, a measurement that has been ongoing for 65 years:
A week before the 28th annual meeting of the United Nations Framework Climate Change Convention opens in oil-rich Dubai, it makes depressing reading.
At the time of writing it is 422.36 parts per million. That is 5.06ppm more than the same day last year. That rise in 12 months is probably the largest ever recorded — more than double the last decade’s annual average.
To give some perspective, exactly a decade ago the concentration was 395.64ppm. Then the scientific community worried about the effect on the weather if we were to pass the 400 mark. Now we know: the result is catastrophic heatwaves, storms, droughts, floods and rapidly increasing and unstoppable sea level rise.
With this and a bunch more grim recent studies and record-breaking news in hand, COP28—more formally, the Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Climate Change Conference—will begin on Thursday in Dubai. That’s the shiny desert dystopia that serves as the international hub of the seven federated nations that make up the United Arab Emirates and the federation’s most populous city. It is part of the emirate of Abu Dhabi, which is also the name of the UAE capital, which its second largest city. Abu Dhabi (the emirate) produces 96% of the oil extracted in the UAE, the planet’s 7th largest oil-producing nation. It exported the better part of 4.3 billion barrels of the stuff in 2022. That’s around 20% as much oil as the United States produced in the same period. The emirates plan to be pumping 5 billion barrels a year by 2030.
Now, you might be saying to yourself, isn’t having a climate conference in a monarchical petrostate kind of like having a middle school on Jeffrey Epstein’s island? You wouldn’t be wrong. But let’s be clear, the biggest petrostate on the planet right now is the U.S. of A.
It's no secret that COP climate conferences typically disappoint. Activist Greta Thunberg characterized them in 2021 as blah blah blah, something a few critics treated as if she had used a paintball gun with indelible ammo on the Mona Lisa. Some people just don’t like their cages rattled.
As with any complex diplomatic effort, which the COP very much is, the real work, the year-round, behind-the-scenes, nitty-gritty staff work happens well outside the view of the temporary media lens focused on the annual summits. Hard work. Frustrating work. And much of it is talk, punctuated by a lot of “no.” At some point, the talk must lead to “yes.” And that’s what’s been counted on to be the outcome at these conferences. But after 27 COPs we are “woefully off-track” in addressing the climate crisis at anywhere near the intensity nor speed we need. Scientists have calculated that for only on one of 42 indicators is the world moving quickly enough to keep the worst climate impacts at bay. That indicator is the uptake of electric vehicles.
Let’s take a little trip in the time machine. The following chart shows the increase in parts per million of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere during the 28 years of climate COPs.
- 361 ppm during COP1 in 1995
- 386 ppm during COP14 in 2008
- 401 ppm during COP21 in 2015
- 421 ppm in the first week of COP28
This year’s conference has in some quarters been labeled no good before it even starts. Controversy started as soon as the location was announced. Holding a climate conference in a country that loves doing the thing that conferences are about stopping them from doing seems odd. But, to repeat, who’s the No. 1 petrostate?
This complaint about location was compounded when the man chosen after a major public relations push to preside over COP28 was announced to be Sultan al-Jaber, a government minister in Abu Dhabi and the CEO of the government-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) The company plans to invest $100 billion in new oil and gas production by 2030, as opposed to about $15 billion in “low carbon solutions.” Critics called this choice a “breathtaking conflict of interest” that could “open the floodgates for greenwashing and oil and gas deals to keep exploiting fossil fuels.” In May, more than 100 E.U. and U.S. lawmakers called for al-Jaber to be replaced.
And that was before fake tweets in support of al-Jaber were revealed, before it was reported that ADNOC personnel were allowed to read emails from the COP28 office, and before members of al-Jaber’s team were caught trying to greenwash his Wikipedia page. Al-Jaber wants to see a tripling of renewables worldwide by 2030, a good thing. But skeptics suggest that the real goal is much the same as that of other oil giants, with renewables just adding energy to what fossil fuels already produce rather than making it possible to rapidly phase them out.
ADNOC isn’t alone in this. The conference also will operate under the shadow of Exxon, Shell, Chevron, TotalEnergies, Saudi Aramco, China Petroleum and Chemical, and other oil majors that are investing heavily in exploration for prodigious future oil and gas production. The very stuff scientists say we must keep in the ground. The companies’ hundreds of lobbyists will be on hand as usual. At COP27 in Egypt last year, there were 636 of them. Another shadow is the failure so far of almost every country to be on target to meet its emissions reduction pledge.
In one arena, real progress has finally been made. An agreement about the operation and scope of the loss and damage fund, which is meant to cover response to climate harms in the poor, most vulnerable nations, has been after long and contentious negotiations wrangled into existence in draft form and only awaits formal approval, which seems likely. But while the matter has been resolved in theory, the practice remains to be seen. History does not portend optimism.
A recent U.N. report estimates that up to $387 billion will be needed every year to help developing nations adapt to climate impacts. Where is that going to come from? It should be remembered that the Green Climate Fund first proposed at the 2009 climate talks in Copenhagen at COP15 has never come close to its original goal of $100 billion annually. There is, of course, the $7 trillion in government subsidies raked in worldwide by oil and gas companies last year. But that money seems to be untouchable because of the political clout of these giants.
For all these and other reasons, there are critics who will tell you these COP summits are just hopium at this stage. While it’s true the COPs never quite live up to their promise, and we should be prepared for more disappointment, they are the only time each year that the whole world gets together to talk seriously about climate. They have nudged the needle in the right direction. To be sure, a lot of words, and not nearly enough action. But better than no climate conferences at all.