Not Speaker Kevin McCarthy
Leading Off:
• CA-23: On Thursday, Speaker-in-Waiting Kevin McCarthy pulled the plug on his bid to become Speaker-for-Real. McCarthy quickly announced that he would not be resigning from the House and would stay on as majority leader. McCarthy's Bakersfield seat is safely red and no notable Republicans have ever tried to challenge him, and that's unlikely to change even after this debacle.
Of course, it's always possible that McCarthy changes his mind and exits the House a bit earlier than planned. It's probably not going to be fun for McCarthy to try and enforce order among his chaotic caucus when he knows that his path to becoming speaker has been blocked by his own loose lips. It's also possible that McCarthy will find he can't do his job as majority leader as well now that he's embarrassed himself so badly, and that he'll leave the House for greener pastures.
McCarthy tells reporter Robert Costa that he'll seek re-election to the House. But this is a very crazy situation with very little modern precedent, and it's possible McCarthy will change his mind once some time has passed. In any case, if McCarthy decides to tell the House "screw you guys, I'm going home," there will be no shortage of Bakersfield-area Republicans eyeing his seat.
3Q Fundraising:
• FL-Sen:
Todd Wilcox (R): $250,000 raised, $500,000 self-funded
• MO-Sen: Jason Kander (D): $825,000 raised, $1.6 million on hand
• CO-06: Mike Coffman (R-inc): $475,000 raised, $855,000 on hand
Senate:
• CO-Sen: State Sen. Jerry Sonnenberg is the latest Republican to express interest in a campaign against Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet. Sonnenberg says he's been considering for months, and was waiting to see what establishment favorite George Brauchler would do (Brauchler decided not to run last week).
Fellow state Sen. Ray Scott's name was also recently mentioned, and Scott has now publicly hinted he's looking at it. When a state representative badmouthed Scott's primary chances on Facebook, Scott replied, "Tunnel vision only applies when you're in a tunnel." This may also be the first time we've used a snarky Facebook comment as proof of a politician's interest in a U.S. Senate bid.
A few Republicans are actually running against Bennet, but none of them have impressed national Republicans. Here's a quick look at who's in right now:
• El Paso County Commissioner Darryl Glenn
• Ex-Colorado Small Business Administration Director Greg Lopez
• State Sen. Tim Neville
Glenn and Lopez fall close to the Some Dude end of the spectrum. Neville is more serious, but Republicans are worried he's too conservative to win.
And here's a look at who is believed to be considering, with any information about their plans:
• Rich guy and 2012 CO-05 candidate Robert Blaha: Likely to announce in October
• State Senate President Bill Cadman: Mentioned, hasn't said anything publicly
• Conservative radio host Dan Caplis: Publicly considering
• State Senate Majority Leader Mark Scheffel: Mentioned, hasn't said anything publicly
• State Sen. Ray Scott: Reportedly being recruited by state party, hasn't ruled it out
• State Sen. Jerry Sonnenberg: Publicly considering
• Larimer County Sheriff Justin Smith: Publicly considering
• Rep. Scott Tipton: Hasn't ruled it out
The strongest potential candidate is likely Tipton. The congressman
declined to rule anything out a month ago but he's been silent since then and if the NRSC is trying to recruit him, they're doing it very quietly.
• FL-Sen: Ugh, seriously? Quinnipiac just polled Florida's Senate race but, amazingly, didn't bother to test the candidate who's actually led the GOP field in most recent primary polling. The school's explanation for leaving out Rep. David Jolly, as Adam Smith rightly scolds, explains nothing: "We tried to deal with a race where there are several relatively unknown candidates," said a spokesman. "It's always a challenge in situations like this." Whatever, bro.
In any event, if you're curious about the matchups they did get around to asking, here are the results, with June's very similar trendlines in parentheses:
• Patrick Murphy (D): 37, Carlos Lopez-Cantera (R): 29 (40-28 Murphy)
• Patrick Murphy (D): 37, Ron DeSantis (R): 30 (39-31 Murphy)
• Alan Grayson (D): 35, Carlos Lopez-Cantera (R): 32 (37-31 Grayson)
• Alan Grayson (D): 37, Ron DeSantis (R): 31 (38-32 Grayson)
• GA-Sen: Republican Sen. Johnny Isakson has maintained that he'll seek re-election next year even after he was diagnosed with Parkinson's Disease, but not everyone is convinced. However, Isakson has announced that he
raised $1 million over the last quarter and has $5.4 million on hand, not the sort of sum you amass if you're planning to call it quits anytime soon.
• NH-Sen: The John Bolton SuperPAC is up with a spot praising Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte, and one guess what it's about. Oh, I'll just tell you: National Security.
• PA-Sen, OH-Sen: Well, Quinnipiac's done it again. Once again, their latest poll has decreed that Ohio is bluer than Pennsylvania, a state of affairs we previously noted has not obtained since the days of "Dewey Defeats Truman." As a result, they continue to find positive results for Democrats in the Buckeye State, with ex-Gov. Ted Strickland leading GOP Sen. Rob Portman 46-43, the same spread as last time. The numbers are also identical to a new Democratic poll from Harstad Research.
But oy, Pennsylvania. Quinnipiac has Republican Sen. Pat Toomey swamping ex-Rep. Joe Sestak 49-34 and crushing former state cabinet official Katie McGinty 51-31. (Braddock Mayor John Fetterman wasn't tested.) That's very similar to the school's last two polls, but it's been a long time since any outfit we can trust has been in the field here. Democrats haven't put out any internal polls to counter Quinnipiac's data, probably because they're still trailing, even if it's by smaller margins. And there may not be a need to, as the only people affected by such early polling are donors, and McGinty just pulled in a sizable $1 million in her first two months on the trail.
But it would still be nice to know what's really going on in the Keystone State, because there's good reason to think Quinnipiac's not telling the story right.
Gubernatorial:
• KY-Gov: Campaign finance reports were due Wednesday, giving us one last look at both candidate's warchests before the Nov. 3 general election. Democrat Jack Conway has raised $6 million since the May primary, and has $2.3 million on hand. Republican Matt Bevin only brought in about $705,000 during that period, and he loaned himself another $995,000. Bevin has just $674,000 in the bank for the final sprint, though he can always throw in more of his own money.
National Republicans have not been happy with Bevin's weak fundraising and his reluctance to air ads, and the RGA recently stopped running commercials here. However, some notable Bluegrass State Republicans are at least making some effort to help Bevin. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (whom Bevin tried to unseat in 2014) and Sen. Rand Paul (whom Bevin initially said was "not the first choice I would make" for president before awkwardly backtracking) both committed to attending a Thursday fundraiser for him. The state's five GOP House members also RSVPed. Whether Bevin will do anything useful with the money the event brought in is up to him.
• NH-Gov: On Wednesday, Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern confirmed that he would run for governor. Van Ostern is the first major Democrat to enter the race, but he's unlikely to be the last. Portsmouth City Councilor Stefany Shaheen, the daughter of Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, says she'll make her decision in the coming weeks, while former state securities chief Mark Connolly and state Sen. Andrew Hosmer are also eyeing this post. Van Ostern is close to Rep. Annie Kuster and he has plenty of other allies in Granite State politics, but influential New Hampshire Democrats are not looking forward between having to choose between Van Ostern and the powerful Shaheen family.
House:
• AZ-01: Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu entered the race for this open swing seat earlier this week, and he's touting a new poll giving him a dominant edge in the GOP primary. The MBQF Consulting survey gives Babeu a 43-11 lead against ex-Secretary of State Ken Bennett, with businessman Gary Kiehne and state House Speaker David Gowan at 9 and 2 respectively.
Weirdly, while a May Babeu poll from the same group also gave Babeu the lead, he was nowhere near this strong: Back then, Babeu beat 2014 nominee Andy Tobin (who isn't running this time) 17-10, with 65 percent undecided. It's very unlikely that Babeu has picked up so much ground over such a short period of time, especially this far away from the primary.
• FL-02: The emerging GOP primary for what will likely be a safe North Florida seat pits Mary Thomas, a former general counsel for the state Department of Elder Affairs, against physician Neal Dunn. While Dunn has alienated many conservatives over his past donations to Democrats, his allies in the GOP establishment are helping him in one important way. Dunn recently announced that he had raised $450,000 over the last quarter, well over twice the $190,000 Thomas brought in over the same period. Thomas' haul is respectable and she could very well win here, especially if she can harness grassroots anger at Dunn's past apostasies, but this is definitely a good start for Dunn.
• IL-15: On Wednesday, state Sen. Kyle McCarter announced that he would challenge 10-term incumbent John Shimkus in the GOP primary. McCarter is arguing that Shimkus needs to go for disregarding his pledge to serve no more than six terms, a line of attack that rarely seems to resonate even with Republican voters. McCarter is also hitting Shimkus for his vote on a recent bill that prevented a government shutdown by preserving Planned Parenthood funding.
McCarter has some ties to religious conservatives, but he has a lot to prove. While conservative groups like the Club For Growth distrust the conservative but establishment-oriented Shimkus, they aren't currently planning to support McCarter. Shimkus hasn't faced a serious opponent since he was thrown into the same district as Democratic Rep. David Phelps in 2002 (Shimkus won 55-45), but he has more than a million on hand and plenty of powerful allies. Indeed, while McCarter touted his support for Gov. Bruce Rauner's agenda, Rauner himself wasted no time endorsing Shimkus. Romney won this rural downstate seat 64-34, and neither Shimkus nor McCarter will have any trouble keeping it red.
• IN-04, AG: Republican Rep. Todd Rokita hasn't ruled out forgoing re-election to run for attorney general next year, which would be an odd career move for a entrenched member of the majority. But Howey Politics gives us some background into why Rokita may jump ship, and it turns out the answer goes back to a years-long dispute with former Attorney General Steve Carter.
In 2008 Carter was leaving office, and he wanted Greg Zoeller, who served as one of his top aides, to replace him. The GOP nomination for attorney general was (and still is) decided at a statewide convention rather than in a primary, and Rokita tried to convince delegates to pick Valparaiso Mayor Jon Costas over Zoeller. Rokita argued that Carter did a poor job as attorney general, and choosing Zoeller would ensure more dysfunction. Zoeller ended up winning at both the convention and in the general election, and the Carter-Rokita fight looks like it's bubbling up again. Zoeller is leaving office to run for the vacant 9th Congressional District and Carter is planning to run to regain his old post, and Rokita may jump in to stop him.
There's no word when Rokita will make up his mind: His allies only tell Howey Politics that Rokita has time to figure out his plans. The congressional filing deadline in Indiana is Feb. 5, so Rokita doesn't exactly have all the time in the world. In theory, Rokita could run for re-election and only drop out if he gets the attorney general nomination at the convention, but Howey says that Rokita knows this maneuver would be "akin to political suicide."
While Rokita's hold on his House seat looks safe, he still has plenty of enemies in state GOP politics who could cause him trouble at a convention. Legislative Republicans are still angry that Rokita pushed for redistricting reform while he served as secretary of state, and they drew his home out of his district in what seems to have been little more than an act of spite. If the 4th District opens up, expect plenty of Republicans to eye this safely red western Indiana seat.
• MN-02: On Wednesday, GOP state Rep. Tony Albright ruled out a campaign for this open swing seat. Republican operatives viewed Albright as a credible potential candidate but not exactly top-tier, so his move probably won't upset too many people. We're still waiting to hear from ex-state Sen. Ted Daley, who the GOP establishment thinks will give them the best chance to hold on here.
• NY-19: As much as Democrats love to make fun of John Faso for his 70-29 loss to Eliot Spitzer in the 2006 gubernatorial race and for his old powerless job as Assembly minority leader, it's clear that he's really good at raising money. Faso, who has the support of the GOP establishment, brought in $625,000 over the last three months, and he has $559,000 on hand. But Faso's only primary rival, businessman Andrew Heaney, actually outraised him with a $643,000 haul of his own (Heaney says he didn't do any self-funding). Democrats are still looking for a viable candidate for this swing seat, though Team Blue hopes that Ulster County Executive Mike Hein will take a look after he's re-elected this November.
Mayoral:
• Houston, TX Mayor: Despite a bevy of candidates, the race to run America's fourth largest city has been a very low energy affair. Still, we have an American Strategies poll on behalf of the Houston Association of Realtors that takes a look at next month's non-partisan primary:
State Rep. Sylvester Turner: 19
Ex-Harris County Sheriff Adrian Garcia: 19
Ex-Kemah Mayor Bill King: 10
Ex-Rep. Chris Bell: 10
Councilor Stephen Costello: 9
Ex-City Attorney and 2013 candidate Ben Hall: 6
Businessman Marty McVey: 1
A
June poll from the University of Houston and Rice University also showed Turner and Garcia, who both identify as Democrats, taking the two spots that would send them to a December runoff.
The mayoral contest has been overshadowed by a referendum over the Houston Equal Rights Ordinance (HERO). The law, which aims to protect LGBT residents, was originally approved by the city council, but the Texas Supreme Court ruled that it was invalid unless voters pass it. American Strategies gives the pro-HERO yes side a 52-37 lead. However, it's quite possible that the referendum will draw voters who don't normally vote in off-year elections and make things closer. Hall has spoken out against HERO in the mayoral race, but it's unclear if the voters who show up just to vote against HERO will care enough about city politics to vote for him.
Other Races:
• KY-AG: We recently noted that the Republican Attorneys General Association has dumped a total of $2.2 million hitting Democrat Andy Beshear. The Democratic group Bluegrass Alliance for Consumer Rights has launched a $630,000 ad buy and they're up with their first spot attacking GOP state Sen. Whitney Westerfield.
The narrator accuses Westerfield of putting aside his duties while he was a county commonwealth's attorney. The narrator also adds that Westerfield "even got caught skipping court to get a pedicure," and the spot shows an actor playing Westerfield relaxing at a salon.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.