The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● CT-05: On Wednesday, GOP state Rep. William Petit told The Courant that he was indeed considering a bid to replace his longtime adversary, retiring Democratic Rep. Elizabeth Esty, in this 50-46 Clinton seat. Petit was the lone survivor of a chilling 2007 home invasion in Cheshire that left his wife and daughters dead, and the physician became a fierce advocate for the death penalty. Esty, who was a state representative from Cheshire, voted to abolish capital punishment in 2009, and Petit was a high-profile supporter of her GOP opponent the next year.
Campaign Action
Esty lost re-election to the state House that cycle, but she won this congressional district two years later. Petit considered running against her in 2014, but decided not to. But he did seek a seat in the state House in 2016, and Petit defeated a 22-year Democratic incumbent 60-40 even as Clinton was carrying the district 49-46.
Several other candidates on both sides are considering running to replace Esty, who dropped her re-election bid over her inadequate handling of an abusive aide. Wealthy businessman Mark Greenberg says he is also considering seeking the GOP nomination, but Republicans may not prefer to see him try again. Greenberg lost the 2010 and 2012 primaries, but he won without any opposition in 2014. Greenberg loaned his campaign $1.65 million, but national Democrats ran ads hitting him for calling Social Security a failure. While Esty had only narrowly won her first term two years before and 2014 was a GOP wave year, Greenberg lost 53-46.
The chair of the state GOP also says that state Sens. Eric Berthel and Kevin Witkos are considering, though neither has said anything publicly yet. On the Democratic side, the local NBC affiliate says that state Rep. David Arconti has been "discussed" as a possibility, but he also hasn't said anything about his plans.
The filing deadline is June 12, but candidates have an incentive to decide sooner than that. Republicans will hold their state party convention May 11 to May 12, where congressional candidates will also be competing for the party endorsement; Democrats will hold congressional district party conventions May 14. Candidates need to win the support of at least 15 percent of delegates to earn a spot on the primary ballot: If they don't meet this threshold, they'll need to turn in signatures by June 12 from at least 2 percent of the district's registered party members.
1Q Fundraising
● AZ-Gov: Steve Farley (D): $265,000 raised
● MA-07: Mike Capuano (D-inc): $500,000 raised, $1.1 million cash-on-hand; Ayanna Pressley (D): $364,000 raised
● PA-05: Ashley Lunkenheimer (D): $413,000 raised (in two months)
● PA-10: Shavonnia Corbin-Johnson (D): $160,000 raised
● TX-23: Gina Ortiz Jones (D): $700,000 raised
Senate
● AZ-Sen: GOP Sen. John McCain has been absent from the Senate since December due to poor health, and while there has long been talk of what might happen to his seat if a vacancy arises, there is still uncertainty over just when the subsequent special election would have to be held. Arizona's elections services director, Eric Spencer, recently opined that there would be a 2018 special for McCain's seat concurrent with this year's regularly scheduled elections if a vacancy arose by the May 30 filing deadline, otherwise it would take place during the 2020 election cycle.
However, that timing may be open to interpretation. Arizona law requires the governor to appoint a replacement senator from the same party the previous member was elected under, but it says nothing about how soon the vacancy has to arrive before the next general election for the concurrent special election to take place that year or the next cycle. Arizona governors have also never had to fill a Senate vacancy before, so there's no precedent to go off of.
The vagueness of state law could lead to a lawsuit if Gov. Doug Ducey and his fellow Republicans tried not to hold a 2018 election for a vacancy occurring after May 30 but before the late Aug. 28 primary. Republicans have reason to be worried about losing the seat to the Democrats in this year's political environment, so they would undoubtedly prefer no election to happen before 2020. But of course, this could all end up being moot if McCain's health allows him to stay in office through the 2018 elections, if not longer.
● VA-Sen: Candidate filing closed last week for Virginia's June 12 primaries, and the Virginia Public Access Project has a list of candidates here. Note that some nominations will be decided through party conventions rather than through primaries. Most notably, Democrats in the 5th Congressional District will pick their nominee to face GOP Rep. Tom Garrett at their May 5 convention, while Republicans will choose their candidate for the open and very red 6th District on May 19.
Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine is seeking a second term, and national Republicans aren't seriously targeting him. They're instead hoping that whomever emerges from the primary just won't drag down the ticket, but they may be out of luck. State Del. Nick Freitas, who is one of the three candidates seeking the GOP nod, took to the floor of the chamber and speculated that "the abortion industry" may be linked to mass shootings and said that it was the Democratic Party that had "supported Jim Crow, that supported segregation, or supported Massive Resistance." And Freitas may be least-bad choice here for nervous Republicans.
Their other two contenders are Prince Williams County Supervisor Corey Stewart, who is a notorious Confederate fan boy, and minister E.W. Jackson, whose own long history of bizarre and offensive statements helped him lose the 2013 race for lieutenant governor 55-45.
● WV-Sen: GOP Attorney General Patrick Morrisey's new primary ad implies he's some sort of super villain who can move mountains and use them to crush his enemies.
Morrisey is shown speaking in front of a bad green screen image of the Seneca Rocks in West Virginia's Eastern Panhandle and declaring he'll "take on Washington with our West Virginia conservative values." The mountain then flies out of the ground, passes the state capitol building, and lands with a thud on the U.S. Capitol as the candidate calls for not just changing Washington but blowing it up and reinventing it. Morrisey, who is now standing in front of the relocated Seneca Rocks in DC, points to his handiwork, which in real life would have been the source of unimaginable horror, and says, "That's better."
Gubernatorial
● CT-Gov: Former Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz has finally upgraded her primary campaign from exploratory to official, leaving just Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin as the only notable Democrat formally still in exploratory mode. Bysiewicz is part of a very crowded field that includes businessman Ned Lamont, Bridgeport Mayor Joe Ganim, former Consumer Protection Commissioner Jonathan Harris, and former Department of Veterans Affairs Commissioner Sean Connolly.
● GA-Gov: Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle's latest Republican primary ad features him taking credit for tax cuts and job growth under Gov. Nathan Deal's tenure.
● ID-Gov: A group called the Protect Freedom PAC has announced it will air a TV ad "backed with a significant buy" in support of Rep. Raul Labrador in the May 15 Republican primary. Their cheap-looking spot calls Labrador a conservative's conservative and rattles off a list of priorities like opposing abortion rights, supporting the Second Amendment, and fighting "big government." Meanwhile, the Professional Fire Fighters of Idaho has endorsed Lt. Gov. Brad Little, who is opposing Labrador in the primary along with developer Tommy Ahlquist.
● TN-Gov: Save the Children Action Network has recently been using Democratic pollster Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research and Republican firm TargetPoint Consulting to survey the gubernatorial primary landscape in a handful of states, and their latest poll looks at Tennessee. Rep. Diane Black leads the August GOP primary field with 25 percent, followed by former state cabinet official Randy Boyd at 20 percent, former state Higher Education Commissioner Bill Lee at 7 percent, and state House Speaker Beth Harwell at 6 percent. They also surveyed the Democratic contest, but their sample size for that portion of the poll was below the 300-respondent minimum for us to include in the Digest.
House
● AZ-08: Democrat Hiral Tipirneni's latest ad ahead of the April 24 special attacks Republican Debbie Lesko for being an ethically shady politician who is in the pocket of special interests and favors Social Security cuts. The spot also argues Tipirneni's background as an emergency room physician, not being a career politician, will give her a better perspective on how to solve problems. Tipirneni also earned an endorsement from EMILY's List this week.
● CA-39: Businessman Andy Thorburn, who is one of several Democrats competing in the June top-two primary, is out with a new ad featuring his son saying how the candidate inspired him to become a prosecutor and "dedicate my career to the pursuit of justice and fighting for others."
● NH-01: On Wednesday, Sen. Maggie Hassan endorsed Executive Councilor Chris Pappas in the crowded September Democratic primary. So far, Hassan is the most prominent politician to take sides in the contest for this open swing seat.
● NY-24: Multiple media outlets have reported that Juanita Perez Williams, the former top attorney for the city of Syracuse, will challenge GOP Rep. John Katko after all. Perez Williams, who ruled out a run in January, has not yet announced that she's now in, but Auburnpub.com reports that she's circulating petitions to get on the Democratic primary ballot ahead of the April 12 filing deadline.
Perez Williams, who served in the Navy as a JAG officer, became Syracuse's corporation counsel before a stint as regional director of the New York State Department of Labor. Perez Williams sought elected office for the first time last year, and she decisively won a three-way Democratic primary for mayor of Syracuse. However, she lost the general election 54-38 to Ben Walsh, a former Republican running as an independent who hails from a prominent local Republican family (his father, former GOP Rep. Jim Walsh, held a previous version of this district until he retired in 2008).
Katko represents a seat that moved from 57-41 Obama win to a small 49-45 margin for Clinton, but that should still be a top Democratic target. However, national Democrats have had a tough time finding a candidate. Former Syracuse Mayor Stephanie Miner turned them down twice this cycle, and Perez Williams said in January that she wouldn't run despite the DCCC's attempts to recruit her.
All four of the local county Democratic Parties ended up each endorsing Syracuse University professor Dana Balter, who has been active with local progressive groups since the 2016 election, but she had just $47,000 in the bank at the end of 2017. The four party chairs released a joint statement on Wednesday reaffirming their support for Balter and accusing the DCCC of "meddling" in the June primary. The D-Trip has not publicly taken sides here.
● OH-12: Liberty Township Trustee Melanie Leneghan has picked up the support of the nihilistic House Freedom Caucus, which could help her stand out in the crowded May 8 GOP primary. Rep. Jim Jordan, a Freedom Caucus bigwig who represents a neighboring seat, also backed Leneghan a few weeks ago.
● PA-08: Republican John Chrin, a wealthy former JP Morgan managing director, is out with his first TV spot ahead of the May 15 primary to face Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright. Chrin says he grew up without much but his family, and describes working his way through school before he was "fortunate enough to build a successful career in business."
● PA-14: State Sen. Guy Reschenthaler is out with his first TV spot ahead of the May 15 GOP primary for this very red Western Pennsylvania seat. Reschenthaler resists the urge to hit state Rep. Rick Saccone for losing last month's high-profile special election (though he's done that in person already), and instead goes with a positive introductory ad.
Reschenthaler says he went to Iraq and prosecuted terrorists and "introduced a bill to end the dangerous practice of sanctuary cities." He concludes that it'll be tough to stop liberals in Congress, "but I faced down the butcher of Fallujah, and DC swamp creatures are in for a fight." Politics PA reports that the ad is running for 700 ratings points, an industry term we explain here.
● VA-02: GOP Rep. Scott Taylor is seeking a second term in a Virginia Beach-based seat that backed Trump 49-45 but supported Democrat Ralph Northam 51-47 in last year's governor's race. National Democrats have consolidated behind Elaine Luria, a retired Navy commander who also runs a few local paint-your-own mermaid studios in the area (mermaids have become Norfolk's unofficial emblem in recent decades). Luria has three primary foes, but none of them look like they'll have the name-recognition or resources to put up a serious fight against her.
This is the type of light red seat Democrats very much need to win in order to take the House, and Taylor won't be an easy target. The former Navy SEAL has worked hard to carve out a moderate image during his brief time in Congress, and he's taken care to speak out against Trump at the right times while still supporting his agenda. Taylor does face a pro-Trump primary challenge from Mary Jones, a former member of the James City County Board of Supervisors, but she's raised very little money.
● VA-07: GOP Rep. Dave Brat scored a place in American political history when he unseated then-House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in their 2014 primary, but national Republicans are fretting that he's not taking his first competitive general election seriously. This suburban Richmond seat went from 55-44 Romney to a smaller 51-44 Trump, but Republican Ed Gillespie won it only 51-47 during last year's governor's race.
Former CIA agent Abigail Spanberger, who has the support of EMILY's List, and Marine veteran Dan Ward are competing to take on Brat. Spanberger recently released a poll giving her a 27-7 lead in the primary, though Ward had more money in the bank at the end of December.
● VA-10: GOP Rep. Barbara Comstock won an expensive re-election campaign last cycle 53-47 even as her Northern Virginia seat swung from 50-49 Romney to 52-42 Clinton, but she's in even more danger now. Trump has been particularly toxic in well-educated suburban seats like this, and last year, Democrat Ralph Northam carried the district 56-43.
Eight different Democrats filed to run here. State Sen. Jennifer Wexton, who has Northam's endorsement, is the only elected official in the contest. Wexton recently released a primary poll giving her the lead with 31 percent of the vote, while none of her rivals took more than 5 percent.
However, many of those other candidates have the resources to get their names out before the primary. Former State Department official Alison Friedman had the most cash at the end of December; Army veteran Dan Helmer (aka the viral video guy), who has VoteVets' support, and former Veterans Administration official Lindsey Davis Stover were also well-funded. Former federal prosecutor Paul Pelletier also has raised a credible amount of money, though he entered the race later than the others.
Comstock herself is a strong fundraiser who has tried to separate herself from Trump. However, she has won tough races before, and no one is acting like she's doomed. The DCCC recently released a poll showing one of her opponents (they didn't say which one) leading the incumbent 46-43.
Legislative
● Special Elections: A quick recap from Johnny Longtorso of Tuesday night's two legislative special elections that featured Democrat-vs.-Republican matchups:
Massachusetts House, 2nd Bristol: Democrats held on to this seat. Jim Hawkins defeated Republican Julie Hall by a 52-48 margin.
Rhode Island SD-08: This was also a Democratic hold; Sandra Cano easily defeated Republican Nathan Luciano by a 73-27 margin.
While Hawkins underperformed recent presidential numbers in his district, this race is a good example of why the toplines don't always tell the whole story. Hawkins, a retired teacher, began the race as a huge underdog to Hall, a well-known member of the Attleboro City Council and a retired Air Force colonel who had the endorsement of Gov. Charlie Baker, the most popular governor in the country. But Hall, apparently not expecting a serious campaign, made some stumbles while Hawkins rode a wave of volunteer enthusiasm to victory.
What's more, as Daniel Donner observes, southern New England has been the one part of the country where Democrats have struggled in special elections, yet they held both seats that were up on Tuesday.
Other Races
● WI Supreme Court: On Tuesday night, Wisconsin progressives scored a dramatic victory when Rebecca Dallet beat conservative Michael Screnock by a resounding 56-44 margin to win a 10-year term on the state Supreme Court. Dallet's win means that the high court's conservative majority will shrink to just one seat, putting progressives in a position to take the majority for themselves some time over the next few years.
It's also a huge loss for Scott Walker, who appointed Screnock to his current circuit court judgeship and urged voters to back him. Screnock's loss immediately sent Walker into meltdown mode on Twitter, with rants about the "Far Left" (capitals his!) being "driven by anger & hatred." Walker wasn't wrong, though, to say, "Next, they'll target me"—and indeed, he should be worried.
While the Supreme Court race was officially nonpartisan, the battle lines were clearly drawn (Joe Biden and Sen. Tammy Baldwin both supported Dallet), and Dallet's margin of victory represents a roughly 12-point swing from Trump's narrow Wisconsin win in 2016. Given the overall political environment, a shift of even half that size could doom Walker as he seeks a third term this November.