The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● FL-Sen: While we had thought that the Digest would be a Mueller-free zone, it turns out that there's at least one aspect of the report that's directly relevant to our interests. Mother Jones reporter Pema Levy points out that one key line in Robert Mueller's findings buttresses former Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson's assertion last year that Russian military hackers had compromised Florida's election systems:
We understand the FBI believes that this operation enabled the GRU to gain access to the network of at least one Florida county government.
At the time, Nelson, who was up for re-election, was bitterly derided for his warning, which he said was based on classified information. As Levy puts it, "Republicans and the media alike painted his comments as dangerous make-believe." That even included the Washington Post's "fact checker" awarding four "Pinocchios" to Nelson, insisting, "Not a single speck of evidence backs him up, and we have serious doubts whether the classified information he cited even exists." Even if the press were to walk this back now, it carried water for the GOP by undermining the credibility of anyone who might sound a similar alarm in the future.
And while we don't know whether Putin's hackers were able to manipulate the election, it's important to remember just how close Nelson's election was: He lost to Republican Rick Scott by just 10,000 votes out of 8.2 million cast statewide—a margin of only 0.1%.
Senate
● AL-Sen: Rep. Mo Brooks once again didn't quite rule out seeking the GOP nomination for the Senate on Thursday, but he sounds very unlikely to. Brooks declared, "It would take a seismic event to get me into the (2020) race," and insisted, "As of today, I am running for re-election to the House of Representatives. And I don't know of any seismic event that is about to occur that will change my mind."
Brooks said back in February that it would take this same hypothetical "seismic event" to get him to run, but the Washington Examiner reported days later that he was actually far more interested than he was letting on. But what could this global, tectonic-shifting, continent-destroying phenomenon that would launch a Brooks Senate bid possibly be? The Examiner relayed back then that Brooks would only run if he received Donald Trump's endorsement or at least a pledge that he would remain neutral in the primary. It sounds like Brooks is pessimistic this will happen, though.
● IA-Sen: Insurance company owner Eddie Mauro, a Democrat who lost the 2018 primary for the 3rd District, told the progressive Iowa blog Bleeding Heartland on Wednesday that he was considering challenging GOP Sen. Joni Ernst, but he had no timeline for deciding. However, several local Democrats also told them that Mauro had "sounded like a definite candidate, not someone who was only considering the Senate race" in recent conversations. State Sen. Claire Celsi, for instance, said that Mauro had spoken to her the previous week and "told me he was running and asked for my support."
Mauro has unsuccessfully run for office twice. In 2016, he lost a state House primary to incumbent Jo Oldson 67-33. Last year, Mauro took a second place in the primary for the 3rd District, losing to eventual winner Cynthia Axne 58-26. Mauro only raised $248,000 from donors during his entire congressional campaign, though he self-funded another $571,000.
● MA-Sen: State Sen. Sonia Chang-Díaz told Politico that, despite rumors to the contrary, she has "not looked at running" against Sen. Ed Markey in the Democratic primary. However, Chang-Díaz explicitly didn't close the door on a campaign, saying instead, "It's a pet peeve of mine when women categorically take themselves out of the running for higher office, so I won't do that." Still, Chang-Díaz concluded by saying she likes what she's doing in the legislature and, "The stakes here are enormous for the progressive agenda and my district, and I think I'm making a difference. So I'm planning on running for re-election in 2020."
● NM-Sen: On Friday, Democratic Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver filed with the FEC to raise money for a possible campaign for this open seat, though she hasn't announced she's in yet. Toulouse Oliver soon thereafter posted a picture of her FEC filing on social media with the caption, "Big announcement coming soon...." Her move comes a day after the DSCC endorsed Rep. Ben Ray Luján.
● TN-Sen: Triton Polling and Research (R) GOP primary for the right-wing Tennessee Star: Former Gov. Bill Haslam: 39, Rep. Mark Green: 30
Gubernatorial
● KY-Gov: Garin-Hart-Yang is out with another poll of the May 21 Democratic primary for state Attorney General Andy Beshear, and it gives him a wide 44-17 lead over state House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins, with former state Auditor Adam Edelen at 16%. A previous GHY poll had Beshear leading with 55%, while Adkins led Edelen 17-7 for a distant second place. A recent Anzalone Liszt Grove Research survey for Edelen had Beshear leading him 43-23, while Adkins was in third with 22%. We have yet to see any independent polling here.
House
● MA-06: Women's health advocate Jamie Zahlaway Belsito filed paperwork a few weeks ago to seek the Democratic nod, and she recently emailed family and friends to say she was "going to lean in and run for Congress in 2020." Belsito does not appear to have addressed whether she'd run in a primary against Rep. Seth Moulton, who is reportedly planning to announce a presidential bid soon but has not said if he'll also seek re-election (Massachusetts allows politicians to run for president and for the House at the same time). Belsito runs a group that brings attention to postpartum depression, and GOP Gov. Charlie Baker recently appointed her to the Salem State University Board of Trustees.
● NC-03: Medium Buying reports that the radical anti-tax Club for Growth will begin airing TV ads on April 25 in support of accountant Celeste Cairns, who is one of the many Republicans campaigning in the April 30 primary. There is no word on the size of the buy.
We also have a new 15-second TV ad from Marine veteran Chimer Clark, a Republican whom we haven't written about yet. Clark tries to pack a lot into his spot's short 15-seconds: He's twice shown firing guns as the narrator extols him as "a tough-as-nails Marine," a businessman, a "Christian-family man," "pro-life, pro-gun, and pro-wall," and "tough enough to stand with Trump."
● NC-09: The Charlotte Observer's Jim Morrill writes that the political arm of the National Association of Realtors has now deployed a total of $1.3 million to aid former NAR official Leigh Thomas Brown in the May 14 GOP primary. No other major group has spent anything to help any of the other primary candidates, though the Club for Growth has expended $18,000 in mailers against Union County Commissioner Stony Rushing. That's certainly not much, but it could foreshadow more anti-Rushing spending from the Club.
● House: On Friday, the NRCC launched the first round of its Patriot Program that aims to help its most vulnerable members, and ten Republicans grace the first round of the list. Unsurprisingly we have John Katko (NY-24), Brian Fitzpatrick (PA-01), and Will Hurd (TX-23), who are the only three House Republicans left in Clinton seats. Also on the list are Fred Upton (MI-06), Don Bacon (NE-02), Lee Zeldin (NY-01), Michael McCaul (TX-10), Pete Olson (TX-22), John Carter (TX-31), and Jaime Herrera Beutler (WA-03). The DCCC launched their counterpart program, known as Frontline, in February.
There are some notable omissions from Patriot Program. Perhaps the most glaring absences are Rodney Davis (IL-13) and Kenny Marchant (TX-24). Davis won re-election 50.4-49.6 against Democrat Betsy Dirksen Londrigan, who is seeking a rematch, and Marchant won in 2018 by just 51-48 against an unheralded Democratic challenger. According to our House Vulnerability Index (HPI), which quantitatively assesses which seats are likeliest to flip in 2020, Davis is the third-most vulnerable Republican in the chamber. Also high on our vulnerability list, but not yet on the NRCC's, are Jim Hagedorn (MN-01), Scott Perry (PA-10), and Steve Chabot (OH-01).
Mayoral
● Tucson, AZ Mayor: Campaign finance reports are in for the Democratic candidates competing in the Aug. 27 primary to succeed retiring Mayor Jonathan Rothschild.
Former state Sen. Steve Farley, who lost last year's primary for governor, led the field by taking in $130,000 through March 31, while developer Randi Dorman raised $93,000. City Councilor Regina Romero hauled in $76,000, but, unlike her two rivals, she's enrolling in the city's Clean Elections program, which provides matching funds to candidates who agree to restrictions on their fundraising and spending. Romero's team says that she recently got another $76,000 from the city as a result, which would give her more money than either of her two rivals.
Whoever emerges from the August Democratic primary will be the favorite to win the November general, especially since none of the GOP or independent contenders have raised more than $7,000 so far. The candidate filing deadline is May 29.