The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● VA State House: On Wednesday, a day after a recount flipped Democrat Shelly Simonds' 10-vote deficit to a 1-vote lead, the three judges overseeing the process decided to count a ballot for Republican Del. David Yancey that had been rejected the previous day, throwing the race for Virginia's 94th House District into a tie. If the result stands, a winner would be chosen by drawing lots, likely next week but possibly later this week.
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However, the latest outcome could very well change once again. Democrats haven't yet said how they'll proceed, but while one provision of state law says that recount proceedings "shall be final and not subject to appeal," that can't preclude litigation in federal court. Adding another wrinkle, a separate statute says that whoever loses the drawing of lots may seek another recount.
But whatever happens next, there are at least a couple of reasons why Wednesday's developments could get overturned. For one, there's the question of timeliness. Any objections to how the votes were tallied during Tuesday's recount should have been brought up during the recount itself, but Yancey's team didn't raise its concerns about this uncounted ballot until Wednesday, when the panel of judges convened to finalize the results.
Then there's the ballot itself. Reporter Jordan Pascale obtained a copy of the actual ballot, which you can see here. In the race for delegate, the voter in question filled in ovals for both Simonds and Yancey, then appears to have made a slash through the bubble for Simonds (there's also a squiggle leaking out of the right side of the bubble for Yancey). Making matters more confusing, the same voter darkened the bubble for Republican Ed Gillespie in the governor's race and crossed it out with an "X," while they filled in no other bubble in that contest. The judges determined that the voter intended to cast a ballot for Yancey, but that's far from clear.
The ultimate resolution to this race is as critical as they come: Republicans currently control 50 seats in the House of Delegates, while Democrats have 49. If Simonds is the victor, then the GOP would be forced into a power-sharing arrangement with Democrats, something that happened once before, two decades ago. And there's still one other contest that remains unresolved: In the 28th District, Democrats have asked for a new election because at least 147 voters were given ballots for the wrong district, and Republican Bob Thomas leads Democrat Joshua Cole by just 82 votes. A hearing in that case is scheduled for Jan. 5.
Senate
● MN-Sen-B: Democratic Sen. Al Franken's office has announced that he will resign from the Senate on Jan. 2. Democratic Lt. Gov. Tina Smith, whom Gov. Mark Dayton has appointed to succeed Franken, is to be sworn in the next day. Smith will run in the November special election for the final years of Franken's term.
● MS-Sen: State Sen. Chris McDaniel says he'll decide next month if he'll challenge Sen. Roger Wicker in the GOP primary, but a new poll from Mason-Dixon finds the incumbent in good shape. They give Wicker a 49-33 lead in a hypothetical primary and a 70-16 approval rating with Republicans.
McDaniel ran against Sen. Thad Cochran in 2014 and very narrowly lost the primary runoff. Unfortunately, there aren't enough polls to assess how much stronger Wicker is at this point in the race than Cochran was. Four years ago, the Democratic firm PPP gave Cochran just a 44-38 lead over McDaniel, while the GOP pollster Harper had him leading 54-31. The only other poll we've seen of a Wicker-McDaniel matchup was all the way back in April, when a Public Opinion Strategies survey for the Wicker campaign gave him a 55-30 lead, so we also don't have much data to suggest if Wicker is really as far ahead as Mason-Dixon finds.
However, as we've pointed out before, Wicker has plenty of assets that Cochran lacked. While Cochran dithered for months about whether or not to run again, Wicker hit the ground running and had $3.6 million in the bank at the end of September. Wicker also doesn't appear to have made nearly as many enemies at home as Cochran had.
● TN-Sen: A group called Defend the President that supports Rep. Marsha Blackburn in the GOP primary is out with a poll from WPA Intelligence arguing she'd be by far the strongest candidate against ex-Gov. Phil Bredesen in a general election. The mid-December poll gives Blackburn a 43-34 lead, while the same sample shows ex-Rep. Stephen Fincher losing to Bredesen 42-30. It feels unlikely that Blackburn would perform so much better than Fincher, especially this early in the race when no one has begun advertising or seriously attacking each other. The DSCC responded by dusting off an October poll from Garin-Hart-Yang that gave Bredesen a 46-41 lead over Blackburn. They did not release numbers for Fincher.
Gubernatorial
● AL-Gov: State Commissioner of Agriculture & Industries John McMillan has announced that he's leaving the GOP primary for governor and will run to succeed termed-out state Treasurer Young Boozer (yes, that's his real name) instead. McMillan never raised much money for his primary bid against Gov. Kay Ivey, so it's not a surprise he's focusing on another race.
● CO-Gov: Lt. Gov. Donna Lynne, who is one of several Democrats running to succeed termed-out Gov. John Hickenlooper, has announced that she'll try to petition her way onto the June primary ballot rather than take her chances at the April 14 state convention. Colorado has an unusual process through which candidates can try to reach the primary either by winning the support of at least 30 percent of the delegates at their party convention (also known as a party assembly) or by collecting enough signatures to appear on the June ballot, regardless of what happens at the convention. But as we'll explain, both approaches present risks for even serious candidates and introduce quite a lot of unpredictability into the entire process.
As Colorado Politics explains, in order to successfully petition her way onto the ballot, Lynne will need to collect 1,500 valid signatures from each of Colorado's seven congressional districts. That's a time-consuming effort that can become quite costly, particularly for Democrats gathering signatures in heavily Republican rural districts where dense urban clusters of Democratic voters are few in number. And to make things even more complicated, a voter can only sign one petition for each race. If a voter signs petitions for multiple contenders, it only counts in favor of the first candidate to turn in their signatures.
We saw how messy the process got in the 2016 GOP Senate primary, where the secretary of state initially said that three of the four candidates who had turned in petitions couldn't make it onto the ballot, but judges gradually ruled that they each had enough valid signatures. One of those candidates, ex-state Rep. Jon Keyser, turned in several forged signatures, but a judge ruled that challenges to their validity were brought up too late. Keyser badly lost the primary, the petition-gatherer accused of forging the signatures was sentenced to four years of probation, and Hickenlooper later signed a law that makes it easier for the state to weed out petition fraud. So yeah, there are a few good reasons why candidates often prefer to just take their chances at the state convention rather than go through all this.
However, 2016 also shows how risky it is to just depend on the convention to advance to the primary. That year, little-known primary candidate Calandra Vargas led sitting Rep. Doug Lamborn 58-35 in convention delegates; if Lamborn had slipped below 30 percent, he would have lost the GOP nomination then and there. Lamborn beat Vargas 68-32 in the primary a few months later, which underscores how different convention delegates are from primary voters. In the Senate race, Republican Darryl Glenn entered the convention with little money or name recognition, but like Vargas, he galvanized delegates with a speech. State Sen. Tim Neville was seen as the favorite to win the convention going in, but Glenn ended up taking 70 percent of the delegates' vote, which immediately ended the candidacies of Neville and several other Republicans.
Petitions are due weeks before the party assemblies, so candidates need to decide well in advance of the convention which course they’ll take. Neither choice is exactly ideal: Take the convention route and risk watching your campaign end after a rival gives a great speech, or collect petitions and spend a lot of time and money going through a complicated and cutthroat process. But it's a choice candidates need to make, and Lynne has made hers.
● CT-Gov: While Oz Griebel, a former bank executive and the outgoing head of the local Hartford area chamber of commerce, teased a campaign for governor this week, he surprised us when he announced Wednesday that he'd run as an independent instead of as a Republican. Griebel sought the GOP nod back in 2010 and took a distant third in the three-way primary with 19 percent of the vote.
However, it may be too much to hope that he'll appeal more to Republicans than Democrats in a general. Griebel kicked off his new bid by arguing he'd smash partisan barriers, and he picked gun-safety activist Monte Frank, an ex-Democrat and former president of the Connecticut Bar Association, as his running mate. The ticket pledged not to accept public campaign financing, and said they'd fund their campaign through individual donations.
● FL-Gov: On Wednesday, Florida Republican Jack Latvala announced that he would resign from the state Senate at the beginning on January. Latvala, a longtime legislator from the St. Petersburg area, looked like a strong candidate for governor until November, when multiple women accused him of sexual harassment.
The special master's report on the investigation against him was delivered to the Senate Rules Committee on Tuesday, and it was even worse for Latvala than almost anyone anticipated. Not only did the report feature several women describing unwanted touching by the senator, but the special master also referred the case for criminal investigation, saying that Latvala may have traded sexual favors for action on legislation. The next day, another lawyer hired by the Senate to investigate Latvala released a similar report. There was a good chance Latvala would have become the first senator in Florida history to be expelled, so he jumped before he could be pushed.
Latvala did not say whether he was dropping out of the race for governor, but it hardly matters now. The soon-to-be-former senator's resignation letter also did not express any contrition whatsoever. Latvala argued that his accusers were lying about him, and if he made any mistakes, he just hadn't "kept up with political correctness in my comments as well as I should have." The once-powerful senator gave his GOP colleagues the (metaphorical) finger on the way out, writing, "If this is the process our Party and Senate leadership desires, then I have no interest in continuing to serve with you."
● ME-Gov: On Tuesday, former Bangor Mayor Sean Faircloth filed papers to seek the Democratic nomination for governor, though he says he's still considering whether to run. Faircloth is a longtime local politician who served in the legislature in separate stints in the 1990s and again in the 2000s, ultimately reaching the post of majority whip in his final term in the state House from 2007 to 2008. In between, Faircloth ran for the open 2nd Congressional District in 2002 and lost to eventual winner Mike Michaud, taking third place with 20 percent of the vote. He later won a seat on the Bangor City Council and was chosen by his colleagues to serve as mayor in 2016, but he chose not to seek re-election this year.
Faircloth's positions outside of elected office may be even more interesting. Faircloth founded the Maine Discovery Museum, which is the state's largest children's museum, and he now heads an organization called Maine Mental Health Connections, which provides services to people with mental illnesses. In between, Faircloth served as executive director of the Secular Coalition for America, which describes itself as the "nation's leading nontheistic advocacy group."
That's notable given how few major politicians identify as atheists and how many Americans say they wouldn't vote for an atheist for president. (Indeed, the only sort of president that voters found less appealing in a Gallup poll last year was a socialist.) However, Maine voters may be more open to backing a candidate associated with atheism than voters in most other states. A 2017 Gallup study found that only 23 percent of Maine adults identify as "very religious," the second-smallest proportion of any of the 50 states. By contrast, fully 50 percent consider themselves "nonreligious," which is likewise the second-largest such contingent of any state. (On both measures, only nearby Vermont ranks ahead of Maine.)
● MI-Gov, MI-Sen: The GOP firm Strategic National is out with polls of next year's Republican primaries for governor and U.S. Senate. It's not clear who commissioned the polls, though Strategic National works for Lt. Gov. and gubernatorial candidate Brian Calley. They give Attorney General Bill Schuette a 30-19 lead over Calley; according to an unreleased poll, Calley was at 10 percent in November, while Schuette has pretty much stayed flat. Other polls have given Schuette larger leads, though we still don't have much data to work with.
Over in the Senate race, undecided rules the day with 75 percent of the vote. Ex-state Supreme Court Justice Robert Young Jr. leads businessman and veteran John James 11-9, while rich guy Sandy Pensler takes 5.
● NM-Gov: On Tuesday, after former media executive Jeff Apodaca called on the House to investigate Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham over allegations that she had fired an intern in 2015 because she was transgender, a supporter of Lujan Grisham's accused Apodaca of trying to kiss her on the mouth at a social event earlier this year, which Apodaca denies doing. Lujan Grisham and Apodaca are both seeking the Democratic nomination for governor.
Last week, the intern, Riley Del Rey, says that she told then-Rep. Mike Honda that she was transgender and says she believes Honda informed Lujan Grisham, who she claims fired her as a result. Honda, who has a transgender granddaughter, denied he divulged anything to Lujan Grisham, saying "Why would I?" and adding that he doesn't even discuss his granddaughter's status "without her permission."
Lujan Grisham also denied the allegations, and in a "separation letter" Del Rey was asked to write to Lujan Grisham when she left her internship, Del Rey (who went by Riley Golightly at the time) said, "I acknowledge that my behavior was unprofessional and unacceptable" without specifying what that behavior was. Del Rey first told the Albuquerque Journal she felt "pressured" to write the letter (a word the paper used) but now claims the letter is "fake" and says she's filing an ethics complaint. The Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute, which was Del Rey's actual employer, denied the charge and accused Del Rey of being "repeatedly … dishonest" about the entire matter.
Apodaca, who trailed his rival by an enormous margin in the only public poll of the primary so far, then sought to seize on the issue, putting out a statement on Monday that was apparently directed at Nancy Pelosi (who isn't responsible for deciding what matters the House Ethics Committee chooses to look into). The next day, Marianna Anaya, an organizer for the American Federation of Teachers, said that after a whiffle ball game between staffers for the Democratic Party and the AFT, Apodaca "came up to me totally smelling of beer and tried to kiss me on the lips." Apart from Apodaca's own denial, another attendee, who says she's known Apodaca since 1979, disputed the account, saying, "I was there, and I've never seen Jeff act in an inappropriate way."
House
● FL-27: While Miami-Dade County Commissioner Daniella Levine Cava didn't rule out seeking the Democratic nod shortly after GOP Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen announced she would retire, Cava endorsed state Sen. Jose Javier Rodriguez this week instead. Rodriguez is one of several well-funded Democrats running for this Miami-area seat, which looks like Team Blue's strongest House pickup opportunity in the nation.
● PA-09: Last year, Rep. Bill Shuster only held off a GOP primary challenge from underfunded businessman Art Halvorson 50.6-49.4, and Halvorson is considering another bid in this safely red rural seat. Shuster is arguing he shouldn't bother, and he's dropped a survey from Maverick Opinion giving himself a 58-17 lead over Halvorson. Halvorson recently released his own poll showing Shuster ahead 38-36, but that survey was from the undependable Gravis Marketing.
If Halvorson jumps in, this will be the fourth time they've faced off in the last three cycles. In 2014, Shuster beat Halvorson 53-35 in a three-way race. Last year, Halvorson won the Democratic nomination through an unsolicited write-in campaign as he was losing the primary. Halvorson decided to run as the Democratic nominee while saying he’d caucus with the GOP, and he got crushed 63-37 in the general election.
● PA-18: The anti-tax group the Club for Growth has endorsed GOP state Rep. Rick Saccone in the March special election to replace former Rep. Tim Murphy. The Club often gets involved in Republican primaries, but they've been known to air ads in general elections like this one when there's a candidate who shares their dystopian view of the universe. Saccone faces former federal prosecutor Conor Lamb in this 58-39 Trump seat in Western Pennsylvania.
● SC-01: While Charleston County Republican Party Chairman Larry Kobrovsky expressed interest challenging Rep. Mark Sanford in a primary a few months ago, he announced this week that Sanford's vote for the GOP's tax bill convinced him not to. State Rep. Katie Arrington remains Sanford's only notable primary foe in this conservative coastal seat.
● TX-27: On Wednesday, a federal judge sided with the Texas Republican Party and ruled that they did not need to include retiring Rep. Blake Farenthold's name on the primary ballot. Farenthold had filed to seek a fifth term in this 60-37 Trump seat, but he decided to retire after the filing deadline closed after more ugly stories about his behavior came to light. The state Democratic Party briefly tried to keep Farenthold's name on the ballot, but they dropped their own lawsuit later that same day. Ex-state Water Development Board Chair Bech Bruun likely has the inside track in the GOP primary.
Legislative
● NV State Senate: Republicans' desperate recall efforts are moving forward in the Silver State. Nevada election officials have announced that the petition to recall a second Democrat, state Sen. Nicole Cannizzaro, exceeded the required number of signatures (albeit by margin of just 43), meaning the recall process will move forward. That follows the petition against Democratic Sen. Joyce Woodhouse, which was ruled sufficient in early November. Democrats had previously sued to challenge that signature count, and they will likely follow suit with Cannizzaro.
Additionally, an illuminating finance report has been filed in a third attempted (but failed) recall against a woman senator who switched parties this year to caucus with Democrats. The report reveals that the D.C.-based Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) was the sole funder of the failed recall attempt, to the tune of $160,000. Republicans later shifted $118,000 of that money to the recall efforts for Woodhouse and Cannizzaro. The RSLC may have also contributed directly to the Woodhouse and Cannizzaro efforts, but we won't know until those recall committees file finance reports.
● Special Elections: Tuesday brought us the final legislative special elections of the year, and the indefatigable Johnny Longtorso, who has covered every special all year long, of course has a recap of the results:
Florida HD-58: Republicans held this seat easily, with Lawrence McClure defeating Democrat Jose Vazquez Figueroa by a 54-34 margin. Independent Ahmad Hussam Saadaldin came in third with 9 percent, while Libertarian Bryan Zemina pulled in 3 percent.
Tennessee SD-17: Republicans held onto this seat in a surprisingly close race. Mark Pody defeated Democrat Mary Alice Carfi by only 51-49, a huge swing from the seat's 72-24 margin for Donald Trump last year.
The Florida outcome was sucky for Democrats, considering Trump won the district by a much smaller 53-43 margin, but the Democrat was a perennial candidate who'd lost here several times before, while the independent was a Green Party member who says he voted for Jill Stein last year.
However, the result in Tennessee is absolutely stunning. In fact, that 46-point shift represents the second-largest swing from the 2016 presidential results for a special election in the Trump era, behind only a similarly shocking race for the Oklahoma House back in May that moved 48 points.
We've been arguing all year that outcomes like these—races where Democrats make big gains even if they fall short—are an important portent of things to come, which is why we've been tracking them so closely. Overall, there have been six congressional and 64 legislative special elections since Trump was elected that have featured one Democrat versus one Republican on the ballot. (This count excludes nonpartisan races and multi-way contests, since they aren't directly comparable to prior presidential elections.) On average, Democrats have outperformed Hillary Clinton by a 10 points and Barack Obama by 7 points.
That's truly extraordinary, because Democratic performance in special elections has always lagged far behind presidential performance. Indeed, one analysis from 2013 showed that Democratic candidates who ran that year did about 12 points worse than Obama had just a year earlier. We now have more than enough data to say that this is a trend and not a fluke, and last month's regularly scheduled elections in Virginia, where Democrats exceeded all expectations, prove the point.
Republicans can dismiss these facts if they like, and it's certainly possible that the political environment will shift in their favor next year. But for a long time now, all available evidence has pointed to a very rough midterm for the GOP, and the pile just keeps growing.