The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● PA-18: On Thursday, scandal-tarred Pennsylvania GOP Rep. Tim Murphy announced that he would resign from Congress, effective Oct. 21. Murphy's departure came one day after he said that he'd complete his term but not seek re-election next year (though we suspected he might accelerate the timetable for his departure). Under Pennsylvania law, local party delegates will select their candidates for an upcoming special election rather than hold primaries. It's not clear when the special will be, but it's too late to hold it on Nov. 7 along with Pennsylvania's other regularly scheduled contests.
Campaign Action
Murphy, who has always been a loud and proud opponent of abortion, had easily won re-election since his first victory in 2002, but he began attracting bad headlines last month when he admitted to having an affair with a woman named Shannon Edwards. That story looked like it might be survivable, but Murphy's career self-destructed this week when the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette published a text Edwards sent Murphy in January taking him to task for posting an anti-abortion message on Facebook, telling him he had some gall for doing that "when you had no issue asking me to abort our unborn child just last week." Murphy assured Edwards that those messages were from his staff and he "read them and winced. I told staff don't write any more. I will." Edwards' pregnancy scare turned out to be a false alarm. Murphy's catastrophic hypocrisy was not.
Pennsylvania's 18th District, which includes part of Pittsburgh's Allegheny County as well as nearby Westmoreland and Washington counties, went for Donald Trump by a 58-39 margin last year, not much different than Romney's 58-41 win, so Republicans will be favored to hold this seat, and there are plenty who could run here. However, things may change now that party insiders, rather than voters, will pick a nominee.
State Sen. Guy Reschenthaler, who was a prosecutor in the Navy's Judge Advocate General's office in Iraq, announced he was running on Wednesday night, in that very short span of time after Murphy said he'd retire but before he said he'd resign. In fact, even before Murphy announced he wouldn't seek re-election, GOP sources told the Post-Gazette that there was already movement towards Reschenthaler, so if power brokers are fond of him, that could go a long way towards helping him win the GOP nod. Meanwhile, state Rep. Rick Saccone, whose campaign against Democratic Sen. Bob Casey seems to be going nowhere, expressed interest on Wednesday night about running here instead.
While Democrats used to do well in this part of Western Pennsylvania, this is going to be a tough pickup, but party conventions have a way of selecting candidates who are chummy with delegates but lack the electoral skills for dealing with real voters. Just this year, for instance, Republican insiders in Kansas picked the hapless Ron Estes for a special election to the House. Estes ran a flabby campaign and squeaked out a 6-point victory in a seat Donald Trump dominated 60-33. GOP delegates in Montana also selected businessman Greg Gianforte, who infamously beat up a reporter on election eve and likewise limped to a weak win when he should have had a gimme. Republicans may not screw up again, but if they do and Democratic special election enthusiasm carries over here, Democrats will want to be ready.
Indeed, a few candidates were already running. The influential group VoteVets backed Navy veteran Pam Iovino on Wednesday. Former Allegheny County Council Member Mike Crossey and physician Robert Solomon also are in. Now that the seat is vacant, others Democrats may yet express interest, and like Republicans, they'll choose a standard-bearer at a convention, too.
3Q 2017 Fundraising
● VA-Gov: Ralph Northam (D): $6.4 million raised (in September), $5.7 million cash-on-hand
● FL-27: Mary Barzee Flores (D): $300,000 raised; Jose Javier Rodriguez (D): $280,000 raised
● KS-02: Paul Davis (D): $400,000 raised (in 45 days)
● MI-08: Elissa Slotkin (D): $450,000 raised, $10,000 loaned
● NY-11: Max Rose (D): $320,000 raised
● NY-19: Antonio Delgado (D): $400,000 raised
● OH-16: Anthony Gonzalez (R): $425,000 raised (in four weeks), $100,000 self-funded, $600,000 cash-on-hand
● PA-11: Stephen Bloom (R): $110,000 raised (since mid-August)
● PA-15: Ryan Mackenzie (R): $100,000 raised (in three weeks)
Senate
● TN-Sen: Thursday brought us two major developments in the GOP primary to replace retiring Tennessee Sen. Bob Corker. While Gov. Bill Haslam, who is termed-out next year, had spent the last week considering a bid, he announced that he would stay out. Hours later, Rep. Marsha Blackburn, who has represented a Middle Tennessee seat since 2003, announced that she was running.
Despite Blackburn's long service in the House, she may have some appeal to anti-establishment factions in the GOP. Blackburn was one of the few members of Congress who spoke on Donald Trump's behalf at last year's Republican National Convention. She's also close to the anti-tax Club for Growth, a group that often picks fights with the GOP leadership in primaries but also opposed Trump during last year's Republican presidential contest; Politico's Kevin Robillard reports that the Club is expected to back Blackburn. In her kickoff, Blackburn also sought to channel grassroots anger at the party's non-Trump leaders, declaring that "many Senate Republicans act like Democrats or worse, and that's what we have to change."
Blackburn had $3.1 million in her House campaign account at the end of June, and she can immediately transfer that stack of cash to her Senate bid. So far, the only other noteworthy Republican who has entered the race is Andy Ogles, who lead the state chapter of the Koch-affiliated Americans for Prosperity group. However, the Koch political network doesn't seem sold on his campaign.
A few other Republicans are considering running here, with ex-Rep. Stephen Fincher saying he'll decide soon. The Memphis Flyer's Jackson Baker also writes that there has been a "serious effort" to draft Brad Martin, a prominent Memphis businessman and GOP donor who is close to Haslam. Martin, who served in the state House in the 1970s and 1980s, has not yet said anything publicly.
Meanwhile, two other possible GOP candidates decided not to run on Thursday. State Sen. Mark Green, who expressed in challenging Corker before the senator decided to retire, announced that he would run for Blackburn's seat instead (see our TN-07 item below). And ex-state Rep. Joe Carr, who lost the 2014 primary to Sen. Lamar Alexander 50-41, had also sounded interested in challenging Corker, but he endorsed Blackburn rather than run himself.
Tennessee is a very red state, but Democrats hope that Corker's retirement will give them an opening. However, while wealthy businessman Bill Freeman, who took third place in the 2015 race for mayor of Nashville, considered running, he announced on Wednesday that he would stay out. As he did so, Freeman urged ex-Gov. Phil Bredesen to run, even though Bredesen has already said he wouldn't do so in no uncertain terms. The only announced candidate remains Army veteran James Mackler, who just announced raising $300,000 from June to September. Corker only declared he was retiring on Sept. 26, so Mackler has yet to have the opportunity to capitalize on any open-seat mania.
Gubernatorial
● AL-Gov: On Thursday, Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt Maddox announced that he would seek the Democratic nomination in next year's gubernatorial race in Alabama. Maddox had formed an exploratory committee at the end of June, so his move wasn't a surprise, though he'd previously said that he'd likely wait until early 2018 before making a final decision. Maddox has long been mentioned as a rising star in a state where Democrats don't have much of a bench left. Notably, Maddox earned some attention for his work helping Tuscaloosa recover from the destructive 2011 tornados, and he won a fourth term with ease earlier this year.
Maddox will face a primary with former Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb. Cobb's 2006 victory made her one of the last Democrats to win statewide office, but she made some enemies in the party when she resigned in 2011, which allowed then-GOP. Gov. Robert Bentley to pick her successor; she also backed then-Sen. Jeff Sessions' nomination to become attorney general this year. Both Maddox and Bell have been raising money for months, even though only Cobb had formally announced she was running. At the end of September, Cobb led Maddox $87,000 to $59,000 in cash-on-hand. Neither of those totals are very strong for a statewide campaign, but we'll see if Maddox's fundraising picks up in October now that he's made it clear he's in.
No matter what, Team Blue is in for a challenging race next year. Republican Kay Ivey, who became governor in the spring after Bentley resigned in disgrace following a long-running sex scandal, is seeking a full term, though she faces several well-funded primary rivals next year. However, Ivey's campaign released a poll last month showing her taking 66 percent of the vote in the primary against her many foes, and no one has put out any contradictory numbers.
● CT-Gov: Last week, Democrat Sean Connolly announced he was stepping down as commissioner of the state Department of Veterans Affairs, and soon thereafter, he said that he was forming an exploratory committee for a possible run for governor. Connolly, an Army veteran who served as prosecutor and legal adviser for the 101st Airborne Division, including stints in Kuwait and Iraq, is one of several Democrats who have formed exploratory committees here. As we've noted before, campaigning in exploratory mode confers certain advantages related to how Connecticut provides public financing, so many people who have in fact decided to run have an incentive to officially just "explore" for a while.
● MN-Gov: While ex-Gov. Tim Pawlenty has been saying for months that he's "politically retired," the Star-Tribune's J. Patrick Coolican recently reported that Pawlenty has actually been considering seeking the GOP nod for his old job behind the scenes. And what has Pawlenty's response been to this story? On Wednesday, he tweeted, "Appreciate encouragement from friends, but I am politically retired. No change in status." It's like he enjoys trolling us.
And of course, this is very much not a no. As we noted when Pawlenty first started saying he was retired, there is no shortage of politicians who come out of retirement to run for office years later, though of course they don't always win. And there are all sorts of easy ways to make it very clear you're not running for office. Last month, in response to speculation that he could run for the Senate, ex-Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen simply said, "No, I'm not interested in that. I feel like I spent my time, I'm pleased with what I did and I'm ready to move on." That wasn't the message Tennessee Democrats wanted to hear, but it was a very definitive message. If Pawlenty actually wanted to take his name out of consideration, there's nothing stopping him from saying basically the same thing.
● SC-Gov: State Rep. James Smith, an Army veteran who earned a Bronze Star and Purple Heart in Afghanistan, announced on Thursday that he would seek the Democratic nod. Smith, who represents part of the Columbia area, has been preparing for a bid for a while, and state Democrats hope that his military history will help him appeal to voters in a state where Team Blue hasn't had much success in years. Smith is the first notable Democrat to jump in, but he may not be the last. State Sens. Gerald Malloy and John Scott both expressed interest last month, though state Rep. Justin Bamberg said he wouldn't run if Smith does.
Meanwhile, the GOP has its own primary. Henry McMaster was promoted from lieutenant governor to governor after Nikki Haley resigned to become Trump's U.N. ambassador earlier this year, but he faces a primary with former Department of Health and Environmental Control Director Catherine Templeton and Lt. Gov. Kevin Bryant. However, McMaster may soon be getting some outside help. McMaster was an early Trump supporter, and the Post and Courier reports that Trump will campaign for him on Oct. 16. Of course, as soon-to-be ex-Alabama Sen. Luther Strange learned the hard way, even GOP primary voters who love Trump won't always support his candidates.
● VA-Gov: We've said it before and we'll say it now: If a poll looks just way too good to be true, it probably is. Abt Associates, polling on behalf of the Washington Post and George Mason University, gives Democrat Ralph Northam a 53-40 lead with likely voters over Republican Ed Gillespie, and 48-38 advantage with registered voters. Most recent polls give Northam a 3-6 point lead, with a few showing a very tight race, though no one's found Gillespie ahead in months.
By contrast, only Quinnipiac's September survey, where Northam led 51-41, had the Democrat with a double-digit edge. The Real Clear Politics average, which includes this Abt poll, gives Northam a 5-point lead. We'll see what future surveys show, but right now, there's not much reason to think that Northam is anywhere near as far ahead as Abt thinks. Still, in one optimistic sign, while the GOP pollster OnMessage, in a memo to the RGA, tore into the Abt poll, they declined to release their own numbers.
House
● AZ-09, AZ-Gov, AZ-Sen: Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton announced on Thursday that he would seek the Democratic nod to succeed Senate candidate Kyrsten Sinema in a seat that shifted from 51-47 Obama all the way to 55-38 Clinton last year. Term limits prevent Stanton from running for a third term in 2019, and he originally began raising money for a 2018 bid against GOP Secretary of State Michele Reagan, though he later sounded interested in challenging GOP Gov. Doug Ducey or even Sen. Jeff Flake. However, NBC-affiliate KPNX reported in August that Sinema would be the one to take on Flake and that Stanton would run for her House seat instead, and that series of events has now come to pass.
About a third of the 9th District in Phoenix, with the balance in the nearby communities of Tempe, Chandler, Mesa, and Scottsdale. However, the entire seat is in the Phoenix media market, so Stanton shouldn't struggle with name recognition. Because of Arizona's resign-to-run law, Stanton will need to resign as mayor to pursue his congressional bid, though he doesn't need to depart until he submits his petitions for the House race at the end of May. So far, no other notable Democrats have publicly expressed interest in jumping in. Republicans are hoping that Sinema's departure will give them an outside shot at what had looked like a swing seat not very long ago, but they'll need a lot to go right if 2018 continues to shape up as a rough year for Team Red, and Stanton's strong profile slims their already-narrow path even further.
● CO-02: This week, prominent gun-safety activist Ken Toltz joined the Democratic primary for this open Boulder-area seat. Toltz, who said Monday's horrific mass shooting in Las Vegas helped him decide to jump in, ran for office once before, when he challenged then-GOP Rep. Tom Tancredo in an old version of the 6th District in 2000. That contest came a year after the massacre at Columbine High School, which was located in Tancredo's seat, and Toltz made preventing gun violence a centerpiece of his campaign. Toltz lost 54-42 while George W. Bush carried the district 51-44 over Al Gore, then went on to found a group that tries keep concealed firearms off Colorado college campuses.
Toltz is one of several Democrats seeking this 56-35 Clinton seat. Ex-state Department of Regulatory Agencies Executive Director Joe Neguse, consulting business CEO Mark Williams, a former chair of the Boulder County Democratic Party, and University of Colorado planetary scientist Kristopher Larsen, who is mayor of the small community of Nederland, are also running here.
● CO-07: Former diplomat Dan Baer announced this week that he was dropping his campaign for this suburban Denver seat and endorsing Rep. Ed Perlmutter. Earlier this year, Perlmutter decided to run for governor, and Baer and three other Democrats entered the primary to succeed him.
Perlmutter ended up leaving the governor's race, and while he originally said he would still be retiring from the House, he changed his mind in August. The three state legislators who were running quickly dropped out, but Baer had hung on until now, and his departure means that Perlmutter now has a clear path to renomination. Clinton won 51-39 here, and while a few Republicans expressed in running when this seat was temporarily open, no notable candidates stepped up. At this point, we'd be very surprised if Perlmutter has any difficulty next year.
● FL-26: On Thursday, EMILY's List endorsed businesswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in the Democratic primary to face Republican Rep. Carlos Curbelo. So far, Mucarsel-Powell faces no credible intra-party opposition in this Miami-area seat, and no other Democrats have publicly expressed interest in running here. Clinton won this seat 57-41, but Team Red often does very well in this area down-ballot.
● MA-03: On Wednesday, state Rep. Juana Matias announced that she was joining the Democratic primary for this open seat. Matias arrived on the political scene last year, when as a 29-year-old first time candidate, she unseated an incumbent in the primary to win her state House seat. Matias, who was born in the Dominican Republic, kicked off her House bid by proclaiming herself "Donald Trump's worst nightmare." A number of other Democrats are competing for this 58-35 Clinton seat, which includes Lawrence and Lowell in the Merrimack Valley north of Boston.
● MI-06: For the first time in a very long time, Democrats might have a competitive primary in this Kalamazoo-area seat. George Franklin, who served as a top lobbyist for the cereal giant Kellogg, announced that he would challenge longtime GOP Rep. Fred Upton, who might yet leave his seat open to run for the Senate. Franklin joins physician Matt Longjohn, the former national health director for the YMCA, in the primary, along with a few others. Franklin, who currently heads a government relations firm, entered the race with endorsements from ex-Gov. Jim Blanchard and ex-Rep. Mark Schauer, who was Team Blue's 2014 gubernatorial nominee.
Franklin also wrote a book a few years ago about his time in government and business called "Cereal Wars: 30 Years of Lobbying for the Most Famous Tiger in the World," a work that MLive's Mickey Ciokajlo called "a humorous and captivating tale that weaves politics, history and business into a surprisingly readable book." It does sound like Franklin, who wrote about talking with then-President George H.W. Bush in the Oval Office and about being kept out of George W. Bush's administration by Karl Rove, has some useful connections that could help him raise money, though his rivals could try and portray him as a political insider.
This seat, which is located in the southwest corner of Michigan, went from a narrow 50-49 win for Romney to a much wider 51-43 Trump victory. However, while Upton has always won decisively, Democrats hope that a favorable national climate, as well as his work resurrecting the House version of Trumpcare, will give them an opening at long last. And if Upton does decide to challenge Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow, this race could become even more appealing.
● MI-11: On Thursday, businessman Dan Haberman joined the Democratic primary for this open seat in suburban Detroit. We don't know whether he has the resources or connections to raise a serious amount of money, but he did help lead the successful 2009 movement to ban smoking in Michigan restaurants and bars. Haberman will face Haley Stevens, who served as chief of staff to President Obama's 2009 Auto Task Force, and former Detroit Director of Immigration Affairs Fayrouz Saad, in the primary for this open seat Trump won 50-45.
● NJ-03: Attorney Katherine Hartman has dropped out of the Democratic primary to face GOP Rep. Tom MacArthur in this coastal seat, saying she couldn't devote enough time to fundraising. Hartman's decision leaves former Obama administration national security advisor Andy Kim as the only Democratic candidate, at least for now. This seat swung from 52-47 Obama to 51-45 Trump, and with the district split between the pricey Philadelphia media market and the extremely expensive New York City market, it takes a lot of money to air ads here.
● TN-07: Republican Sen. Marsha Blackburn's decision to run for the Senate opens up her 7th Congressional District, which includes Nashville's western suburbs as well as the city of Clarksville. Trump won this seat 68-28, and it should stay red without much trouble.
Immediately after Blackburn made her announcement, state Sen. Mark Green jumped into the GOP primary, and he quickly received the endorsement of the anti-tax Club for Growth. Green has been looking for a promotion out of the state Senate all year and had originally announced he would run for governor, but he dropped out after he was nominated to become Trump's secretary of the Army.
But just last year, Green told a group of tea partiers that he "will not tolerate" teaching the "pillars of Islam" in textbooks, and he told a man who raised fears of armed violence from people who "don't belong here, like Muslims in the United States" that he'd asked a "great question." In the legislature, Green also sponsored a bill that would have allowed healthcare practitioners to refuse treatment to LGBT patients, and he pushed a measure to force transgender students to use the school bathroom matching their legal gender, explaining he had a responsibility to "crush evil."
While Green's views on Muslims and trans people probably put him in good stead with the Trump administration, it wound up tanking his nomination in the face of too much Senate opposition. However, the whole experience seems to have only elevated Green's profile at home, and soon, anti-establishment conservatives began recruiting him to challenge Sen. Bob Corker in the primary. Green originally said no but began to reconsider just before Corker decided to retire. While his bigotry was too much to get him through the Senate, it's probably too much to hope that it's too much for local GOP primary voters.
And sadly, Green's primary opponents may not be any better. Just before Blackburn jumped into the Senate race Green declined, the Nashville Post wrote about "rumors" that party strategist Chip Saltsman, who is currently managing former state cabinet official Randy Boyd's campaign for governor, could run here. Saltsman has not said anything publicly, though Roll Call and Politico have also name-dropped him.
Saltsman, who served as an advisor to then-Tennessee Sen. Bill Frist, rose to prominence in 2008, when he ran Mike Huckabee's surprisingly strong presidential campaign. After the election, Saltsman sought to lead the RNC, and he had the genius idea to mail members a Christmas CD to committee members that featured a song called "Barack the Magic Negro." Saltsman defended the whole thing as innocent satire, but he dropped out of the contest a month later. Of course, since we're still talking about Saltsman almost nine years later, you know he was far from persona non grata with the GOP afterwards. Indeed, in 2010, Saltsman helped Chuck Fleischmann pull off an upset primary win in an East Tennessee congressional seat.
Mayoral
● Seattle, WA Mayor: On Wednesday, former U.S. Attorney Jenny Durkan earned the endorsement of the state's top Democrat, Gov. Jay Inslee, in her bid to become Seattle's next mayor. (Durkan already had the backing of two previous governors, Chris Gregoire and Gary Locke.) This isn't a surprising development, though, since municipal races in Seattle (a city nearly devoid of Republicans) are fought on more of an establishment/anti-establishment axis than a left/right one, and Durkan has been a prominent behind-the-scenes player for Washington's Democrats for decades, most notably when she was lead attorney in the legal battle over the 2004 gubernatorial race.
Other Races
● Prince George's County, MD Executive: On Thursday, former Maryland Rep. Donna Edwards announced that she would seek the Democratic nomination next year to succeed Prince George's County Executive Rushern Baker, who is running for governor. Edwards represented about two-thirds of Prince George's in the House until she unsuccessfully ran for the Senate last year. Edwards lost the Democratic primary to eventual winner Chris Van Hollen 53-39, but she carried P.G. County 63-32.
Prince George's is a populous and heavily Democratic county, and its executive will likely be the Democratic nominee. However, Edwards doesn't have a clear path through the primary. Maryland Matters reports that an early September poll from Gonzales Research & Media Services for the Greater Prince George's Business Roundtable gave State's Attorney Angela Alsobrooks a 37-33 lead over Edwards. State Sen. Anthony Muse, who led a campaign against same-sex marriage in 2012 and who lost a primary challenge to Sen. Ben Cardin 74-16 that same year, was a distant third with 8 percent.
Grab Bag
● Where Are They Now? The freezer congressman has been sprung from the cooler. On Thursday, U.S. District Judge T.S. Ellis threw out the most substantial convictions against ex-Rep. Bill Jefferson, a Democrat who represented most of New Orleans until his 2008 defeat, and ordered "his immediate release" from jail until a new sentence can be determined. Jefferson earned his place in political infamy after he was filmed taking $100,000 in marked cash from a government informant, and $90,000 later was discovered in his freezer. While under indictment in 2008, he unexpectedly lost re-election in what was an otherwise safely Democratic seat. He was convicted the next year, and he began serving his 13-year sentence in 2012.
Ellis' ruling was based in part on the precedent set by the U.S. Supreme Court last year, when it vacated former Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell's conviction for bribery; the high court ruled in McDonnell's situation that the "official acts" that prosecutors had called out, such as "setting up a meeting, calling another public official, or hosting an event," didn't meet the requirements of the bribery statute. Ellis ruled that his 2009 instructions to the jury about "official acts" was too broad in light of the McDonnell ruling, and he's ordered a December re-sentencing date for the remaining charges. Ellis does, however, seem to have resisted the urge to characterize Jefferson's original sentence as a fridge too far.
● Statehouse Action: This Week in Statehouse Action: Don't Vote Around Here No More edition features Wisconsin Republicans trying to destroy the air and water, Michigan lawmakers facing epic turnover, Washington Republicans worried about a "heroine" problem, and more!
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